ESPN Analytics Gives Celtics Insane Edge In Heat Series, But Can’t Be Trusted

It’s a lock that the Boston Celtics will advance past the Miami Heat in their Eastern Conference finals matchup, right?

That’s how ESPN’s analytics model views the series playing out at least.

According to the Worldwide Leader, the Celtics have a 97% (!!) chance to eliminate the Heat in the best-of-seven series. Miami has a mere 3% chance to pull off what would be considered a massive upset both in the eyes of ESPN analytics and oddsmakers. Boston opened as a huge favorite to win the series and thus represent the conference in the NBA Finals.

However, Celtics fans should proceed with caution. After all, we’ve seen this exercise go wrong before, and we’re talking about a team that has been known to play with its food in the postseason. That theme plagued the Celtics last year and has reared its head both in Boston’s first-round matchup against the Atlanta Hawks and in the second round against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Let’s recall how ESPN broke down the probability to win last year’s NBA Finals, for instance. The Celtics had an 86% chance to beat the Golden State Warriors before the start of the best-of-seven, as pointed out by CBS Boston’s Michael Hurley.

And after the teams split the first two games, Boston improved to an 88% chance.

Green Teamers surely will remember how the Golden State Warriors claimed the next two games and edged Boston for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.