Lakers-Nuggets Series Preview: The King's Reign Continues

The No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets and No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers will meet in the Western Conference Finals for the second time in four years. Denver is expected to make their first NBA Finals appearance as the FanDuel Sportsbook posts them as -155 favorites to win the West.Need to Know

LeBron is doing it again. Taking a team that didn’t even have a .500 record until the 74th game of the season to just four wins away from the NBA Finals, LeBron is within view of adding another title to his resume. He hasn’t necessarily had to carry the entire team on his shoulders as Rob Pelinka’s trade deadline acquisitions are all coming together, but he’s proved once again that all he needs is a shot. Get him in the playoffs, and magic will happen.

Denver has been a sleeping giant all season. They’ve lacked the national recognition that their record should warrant while having a two-time MVP on their roster, being a small-market team. Many people’s first exposure to this Nuggets team came in the playoffs, but they have been rolling. Knocking off Minnesota like it was nothing in the opening round to taking down Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the Semifinals. Led by a remarkable series by Jokic, they are coming into the WCF immensely confident.

No one is fully healthy at this stage in the postseason, but the Nuggets have been dealt a good hand. Their injury report is empty, and they haven’t had to deal with significant injury adversity all season. Conversely, the Lakers’ two stars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, have continually been labeled on the injury report with foot issues throughout the postseason. Still, there is no indication either’s injury has worsened to threaten their availability. Unfortunately, they’ll only have three days rest between the two series, but any rest is good at this point.

First off, I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge how incredible Nikola Jokic was last round. Averaging 34.5 points per game and a triple-double, he quelled plenty of noise. At the same time, though, we all know DeAndre Ayton played laughably bad. Heading into this series, Anthony Davis has arguably been the best defender in the league this postseason. Averaging north of two blocks per game against Golden State and bringing an intimidating presence in the paint, AD has been elite. Jokic isn’t going to have a walk in the park like he had against Ayton. If Davis sets the tone early in this series and makes someone else on the Nuggets beat them, the Lakers will quickly become the favorites. 

The Lakers came into their series against the Grizzlies and Warriors, each as underdogs, and took down each team rather convincingly. Denver is a strong No. 1 seed and a deserved favorite in this series, but something feels different about this Lakers team, and I can’t fade the King. The Lakers are deep, connected, clutch, and everyone has pulled their weight. LeBron and Davis know what it takes to win a title, but more importantly, what it takes to beat this Nuggets team as they did back in the bubble. I think Los Angeles’ length and athleticism match up well against this Nuggets team, and I anticipate LeBron being in the Finals again.

• Series Points Scorer: LeBron James (+400)

Nikola Jokic is the betting favorite here to be the top points scorer at -140, but I think the books underestimate Anthony Davis’ defense. I view Jokic operating much more as a facilitator with Davis standing in the paint, so I don’t see him having another series where he averaged close to 35 per night.

LeBron is the most consistent scorer the Lakers have, obviously, and I see him averaging 25 per night as his floor. I know Anthony Davis utterly dominated the 2020 Western Conference Finals against Jokic. Still, in my eyes, Jokic is a much better defender now in his own right, and Aaron Gordon’s presence matters a lot defensively too. Plus, I can’t count on his consistency offensively. Given the anticipated Jokic regression and LeBron outscoring Davis, +400 is too good to pass up here.