The MLB season is a marathon. Teams compete over a 162-game schedule, needing to rank among the top six squads in their respective leagues to make the playoffs. Wins are just as valuable in April, May, and June as they are in the latter part of the season, and franchises can’t afford to lose ground to the teams ahead of them.
Here’s what the playoff brackets would look like if the postseason started today.
National League
| No. 1 – Atlanta Braves | First-Round Bye |
| No. 2 – Los Angeles Dodgers | First-Round Bye |
| No. 3 – Milwaukee Brewers | No. 6 – Miami Marlins |
| No. 4 – Arizona Diamondbacks | No. 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates |
It was a pretty static week in the National League. The only teams to change position were the second-place Atlanta Braves overtaking the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the league. Although, neither team looked impressive. Atlanta compiled a .662 OPS and 4.17 ERA over the past seven days, ranking in the league’s bottom half in both categories. Pitching was the Dodgers’ Achilles heel, as Clayton Kershaw and company combined for a disastrous 6.49 ERA this week, second-worst in the majors.
Moreover, the gap between the playoff and non-playoff teams is shrinking. The Miami Marlins are clutching to the final wild-card spot, scraping by with a .500 record. That ties them with the New York Mets, setting up a potential play-in game between the NL East rivals. Additionally, it leaves the door open for virtually every other National League team, as the last-place Colorado Rockies remain within 4.0 games of a postseason berth. If the playoffs started today, the winner of the Mets vs. Marlins would travel to take on the Milwaukee Braves in the wild-card round.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates are holding steady in the other potential first-round clash. The Pirates built themselves a cushion early this season, but that has slowly eroded over the last few weeks. Pittsburgh survived a seven-game losing skid but still has only five wins over its previous 21 contests. Consequently, they’ve fallen to 25-24 and will start feeling increased pressure from teams hoping to usurp them in the standings. Conversely, the D-Backs continue to exceed pre-season prognostications and are secure in the fourth seed sitting 4.0 games clear of the next closest competitor.
American League
| No. 1 – Tampa Bay Rays | First-Round Bye |
| No. 2 – Texas Rangers | First-Round Bye |
| No. 3 – Minnesota Twins | No. 6 – Houston Astros |
| No. 4 – Baltimore Orioles | No. 5 – New York Yankees |
It’s evident the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers are the superior American League squads. But we’re starting to get a new appreciation for just how good these teams are. The Rays remain the pacesetters in the MLB, going 36-15 through the season’s first two months. Although their spot atop the standings validates their success, we can’t look past their +111 run differential over that stretch. Likewise, Texas has gone on a 7-3 run over its past ten, marginally closing the gap on the frontrunners. More impressively, they eclipsed the Rays in run differential, outscoring their opponents by 112 runs. Any team hoping to dethrone either team in the postseason must bring their A-game.
Thankfully, the Baltimore Orioles might have the pedigree to upset the top seeds. The O’s development has been fast-tracked, and they’ve emerged as a legitimate pennant contender in the AL. Baltimore has the second-most wins in the majors, albeit with a slightly less impressive sixth-ranked run differential. Their experience could get in the way of the Orioles replicating this play in the postseason, particularly if they have to get past the New York Yankees. Aaron Judge has awoken from his slumber to lead the Bronx Bombers back into a playoff spot. On an individual level, his 1.454 OPS over the last two weeks has helped him re-establish himself as the top hitter in the MLB.
Lastly, the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros are locked into the other wild-card matchup. Minnesota has looked less imposing over its recent schedule, going 2-5 this week. Still, they have a lead in the AL Central, sitting 2.5 games up on the second-place Detroit Tigers. An 8-2 run from the Astros has barely cut into the Rangers’ lead in the AL West. Nevertheless, a division crown isn’t out of reach for the perennial contenders, as Houston is just 3.0 games back of Texas with plenty of baseball left to play.
