NBA Finals: Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Series Best Bets

The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat are set to collide in the 2023 NBA Finals, with the Nuggets having home-court advantage and being sizable favorites.

All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

It’s interesting to look at the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final this year. Both matchups have seen an underdog team have multiple upsets and get to the championship series, while on the opposite side of the bracket, the chalk won out. The Heat finished as an 8-seed in the East and needed to qualify for the postseason via the NBA Play-In tournament. They then knocked off the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, followed by the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. Denver was the top seed in the West and handled their business over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns, and Los Angeles Lakers. Both sides have been battle tested to this point, even if the Nuggets have taken just fifteen games to get to the Finals, while the Heat took eighteen. 

Taking down the Bucks and Celtics, the two teams with the best records in the NBA during the regular season, was no easy feat for Miami. This is an extremely well-coached team led by Erik Spoelstra, and they play a team brand of basketball synonymous with the term “Heat culture.” Jimmy Butler has been playing at a superstar level for Miami, but it’s fair to question if they’ll have the depth to match the Nuggets. 

Denver is led by two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. You can make a strong case that should read three-time MVP after this season, but we’ll digress. In addition, Jamal Murray has had another coming-out party in the playoffs, and the Canadian talent appears to be a man on a mission. The Nuggets are sizable favorites to win the NBA title at -480, but counting the Heat out after the gauntlet they’ve run through in the East would be silly. 

The Nuggets have been a juggernaut in the postseason and look like a team on a mission. That doesn’t take away anything from Miami, but Denver looks to be in a different class right now, highlighted by them being big favorites to win the series at -480. Sure, the Heat have been underdogs in every series they’ve played in, but they have yet to play a team as in sync as the Nuggets. Miami will make this a series, but it feels reminiscent of when Miami lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in six games in the bubble. There’s a real chance the Nuggets steamroll the Heat and make this a short series, but we have too much respect for Miami and what they’ve accomplished. 

Best Bet: Nuggets win series 4-2 (+400) 

There will always be some merit in the Miami Heat pulling off an upset here, but with Denver’s rest edge and the level Jokic is playing at, there are many different ways to find value in this NBA Finals, including with the series spread. The Nuggets are listed at -1.5 on the series spread at -164, and there’s a lot of value in backing that number here. 

Best Bet: Nuggets -1.5 (-164)