A pair of pivotal Game 5s highlight Tuesday’s NBA playoff schedule as the Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers, followed by the Phoenix Suns battling the Denver Nuggets.
Among the many recommendations via SportsGrid’s Player Props Model, the following plays stand out.
Note: All odds and props courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
PHX Deandre Ayton OVER 12.5 Points (-106)
SportsGrid Model Rating = 5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 15.4
After scoring 14 points in both Games 1 and 2, Ayton has been held to single digits in back-to-back outings while playing no more than 27 minutes. As the series shifts back to Denver, Phoenix needs the 24-year-old to be more aggressive offensively, particularly given the absence of injured point guard Chris Paul.
Having topped tonight’s points prop in four of his past six games, I’m willing to look past Ayton’s recent struggles and like him to get back on track in Mile High.
PHI James Harden OVER 8.5 Assists (+122)
SportsGrid Model Rating = 4/5 Stars
Model Projection = 8.9
Looking to avoid a 3-1 series deficit, Harden stepped up in a major way in Game 4, tallying 42 points along with nine assists and eight rebounds as Philadelphia pulled out a 116-115 overtime victory. Tonight, I’m focused on The Beard’s playmaking abilities as Harden has topped his 8.5 assists prop in two straight and three of his past five. The former MVP led the league in assists during the regular season at 10.7 per game and looks like a fantastic value this evening. Give me James Harden over 8.5 assists.
PHX Cameron Payne OVER 1.5 Made Threes (+142)
SportsGrid Model Rating = 4.5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 1.6
Continuing to start in Chris Paul’s absence, Payne has struggled from downtown the past two games, shooting a combined 2-9. However, the volume is encouraging, and the 28-year-old shot a respectable 36.8% from three during the regular season. With Denver’s defense focused on slowing down stars Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, Payne will continue to see open looks. At plus money, I’ll gamble on the former first-rounder finding his stroke.
