The NBA playoffs continue Friday with a pair of Game 3 matchups as the Boston Celtics take on the Philadelphia 76ers, followed by the Phoenix Suns hosting the Denver Nuggets.
Using SportsGrid’s Player Props Model, I’ve highlighted three of my top plays, beginning in the desert with Phoenix’s superstar forward.
Note: All odds and props courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
PHX Kevin Durant OVER 1.5 Blocks vs. Nuggets (+172)
SportsGrid Model Rating = 5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 1.7
Durant has recorded five blocks in the series thus far, swatting multiple shots in both games. The 34-year-old is one of my favorite value plays on the board at plus money.
PHX Cameron Payne OVER 5.5 Assists (+100)
SportsGrid Model Rating = 5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 7.4
We’ll keep the value train rolling with Suns point guard Cameron Payne, who is expected to draw the start for the injured Chris Paul. Payne averaged 4.5 assists across 20.2 minutes during the regular season. Adding to the 28-year-old’s appeal is that he recorded six or more helpers in eight of 11 games in which he played 30 or more minutes. With the expected increase in playing time, Payne should have ample opportunity to surpass tonight’s 5.5 market number. Give me the over.
PHI James Harden UNDER 21.5 Points (-118)
SportsGrid Model Rating = 3.5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 19.0
Following his 45-point explosion in Game 1, Harden struggled in Game 2, shooting just 2-of-14 from the floor and finishing with 12 points. While I expect a more efficient performance this evening, the presence of Joel Embiid significantly impacts Harden’s outlook as a scorer. Having averaged precisely 21.0 points during the regular season, Harden has topped his 21.5 points prop in just two of his past six games. That’s enough for me to roll with the under.
