UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Preview & Best Bets

A women’s strawweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 223 as No. 8 Mackenzie Dern faces No. 14 Angela Hill.

• Date: Saturday, May 20, 2023 | Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+

Michael “The Menace” Johnson has had a rough go over his last seven fights, losing five, but he’s won two of three coming off a win over Marc Diakiese. Diego Ferreira was on a roll, winning five straight, but has since lost three in a row to Beneil Dariush, Gregor Gillespie, and Mateusz Gamrot.

Johnson is an inch taller, but Ferreira will have a 0.5-inch reach advantage. Johnson is a perplexing fighter, looking like a world-beater in one fight and a massive disappointment in the next. He began as a wrestler but has developed impressive hands over his career. Johnson is fast, but speed is the first thing to go as fighters age, and he’s 36. However, Ferreira is two years older at 38. Johnson averages 0.52 knockdowns per 15 minutes but lands 0.42 fewer significant strikes per minute. Ferreira averages 0.28 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Johnson has an 80 percent takedown defense rate.

Ferreira will have a tough time getting Johnson to the ground to work his submission attacks and should have a tough time striking against the American. At +132, Johnson is surprisingly the underdog, but it’s always a roll of the dice which version of him shows up. Still, the value is with Johnson to win.

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez is riding a three-fight win streak over Rodolfo Vieira, Josh Fremd, and Marc-Andre Barriault, two of which were by submission. Edmen “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan enters off a TKO of Dalcha Lungiambula but lost the three preceding bouts (two by TKO).

Shahbazyan is two inches taller, but both fighters have a 75-inch reach. Shahbazyan picks up 83 percent of his wins by KO/TKO and averages 0.93 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Hernandez lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute, 0.44 more than the Golden Boy. Hernandez also absorbs 0.37 fewer significant strikes per minute. Although their striking statistics are similar, Hernandez has a significant grappling edge. Fluffy averages 6.49 takedowns per 15 minutes to Shahbazyan’s 2.31. Both have a takedown defense rate in the mid-60s, but Hernandez averages 1.9 more submissions per 15 minutes.

At -215, Hernandez is a significant favorite, so there isn’t much value on an outright win wager. However, two options exist to make money on this fight: Hernandez by submission at +220 or Shahbazyan by KO/TKO at +360.

• Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill
• Odds to Win: Dern -176 | Hill +142
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +650 | Submission +165 | Decision -145
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -134 | No +106

Mackenzie Dern is probably the most decorated women’s Brazilian Jiu-jitsu competitor to ever fight in the UFC, being an ADCC World Champion and multiple-time World Jiu-jitsu Champion. In her MMA career, Dern has carried over her submission prowess, submitting seven opponents in 15 fights. However, Dern has lost to Yan Xiaonan and Marina Rodriguez over her previous three contests, beating only Tecia Torres. At 38, Angela Hill is close to becoming “over the hill.” Hill has won two in a row, beating Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote, but dropped the preceding bouts.

Dern is an inch taller, but Hill will have a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Neither woman has much power, with only five knockouts between them in a combined 42 fights. Hill is the more active fighter, landing 5.68 significant strikes per minute to Dern’s 3.02. Dern has an obvious advantage on the ground but only averages 0.03 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Hill has a 77 percent takedown defense rate. If Dern does get it to the mat, she averages 1.82 submissions per 15 minutes to Hill’s 0.1.

At -172, Dern is the favorite, but Hill has an opportunity in this bout. Dern doesn’t have an overwhelming takedown arsenal, so if Hill could keep this fight on the feet, she could outpoint her way to a win. If this fight goes to the ground, Dern wins easily. With that said, it’s go big or go home time; take Dern by first-round submission at +600.

• Johnson to Win (+132)
• Hernandez by Submission (+220)
• Dern by Submission & Round 1 (+600)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook