UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Preview & Best Bets

A top-15 heavyweight bout headlines UFC on ABC 4 as No. 9 Jairzinho Rozenstruik faces No. 12 Jailton Almeida.

• Date: Saturday, May 13, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Spectrum Center – Charlotte, North Carolina | TV: ABC

Two TUF alum face off when Matt “The Immortal” Brown takes on Court “The Crusher” McGee. Both fighters are far past their prime, Brown winning one of his last three fights, beating Dhiego Lima, but losing to Miguel Baeza, Carlos Condit, and Bryan Barberena. McGee has won two of his previous three, beating Claudio Silva and Ramiz Brahimaj but losing to Jeremiah Wells.

Brown will enter the cage one inch taller, but McGee with have a half-inch reach advantage. This could be the final fight for either fighter, Immortal being 42 years old and McGee 38. Brown has significant power, getting 64 percent of his win by knockout or technical knockout, and averages 0.55 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Crusher is a volume puncher, averaging 4.68 significant strikes per minute. Both are durable, but McGee probably has more in the tank at this point in their careers.

Expect a grueling brawl with McGee coming out on top. The safer bet would be McGee winning outright at -225, but there is a good chance he overwhelms the older Brown to win by KO/TKO at +650.

A top-10 light heavyweight bout features No. 5 Anthony “Lionheart” Smith facing No. 7 Johnny Walker. Smith enters off a loss but won three straight by finish before that. Walker is a wild fighter, unorthodox and unpredictable. He’s split his last four fights, beating Ion Cutelaba and Paul Craig but losing to Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill.

Walker is a large light heavyweight at six-foot-six, with an 82-inch reach. Smith is two inches shorter and will have a six-inch reach disadvantage. Walker has significant power, gaining 84 percent of his wins by KO/TKO and averaging 0.83 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He also lands 0.39 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.77 fewer. The grappling will be interesting, with both averaging a similar takedown output at 0.44 and 0.41 per 15 minutes. Walker hits 100 percent of his takedowns to Smith’s 27. Walker also has the better takedown defense at 58 percent to Smith’s 48. On the ground, Walker averages 0.5 more submissions per 15 minutes. However, in 36 wins, Smith has 14 submission victories, while Walker only has three of his 20 wins by submission.

This bout is a pick’em at -110 for both fighters. Despite the numbers favoring Walker, Smith is the more consistent fighter. Take Smith outright at -110.

• Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida
• Odds to Win: Rozenstruik -550 | Almeida +390
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +115 | Submission -115 | Decision +800
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -134 | No +106

Jailton Almeida enters having won four straight UFC fights and 13 straight overall. His UFC wins were over Danilo Marques, Parker Porter, Anton Turkalj, and Shamil Abdurakhimov. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout win over Chris Daukaus but lost his previous two bouts to Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.

Almeida is one inch taller and will have a one-inch reach advantage. Rozenstruik will have the power edge, gaining 92 percent of his wins by KO/TKO and averaging 1.19 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Almeida lands an average of 1.26 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.89 fewer. Almeida is a former kickboxer but has a scary grappling game. He averages 6.73 takedowns and 2.24 submissions per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has a respectable takedown defense rate at 75 percent, but he’s in trouble everywhere this fight occurs.

At -550, Almeida will most likely win, but we’re not laying that juice. In 17 fights, Rozenstruik has never been submitted, but expect Almeida to dominate on the ground. Take Almeida to win by KO/TKO at +220.

• McGee to win by KO/TKO (650)
• Smith to win (-110)
• Almeida to win by KO/TKO (+220)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook