Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars Series Betting Preview & Picks

The Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars have tasted playoff success recently. In their inaugural season, the Golden Knights made a run to the Stanley Cup Final, shocking the hockey world with their deep run as an expansion franchise. A couple of years later, the Stars emerged as the top team in the conference, knocking off Vegas in the fourth round and making their first finals appearance since 2000. Neither team succeeded in its climb, falling short of lifting Lord Stanley’s Mug. 

Now, the Knights and Stars meet again with a chance at redemption. One team will punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Finals but face the daunting task of getting past the best in the West. 

• Game 1: VGK vs. DAL – May 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET
• Game 2: VGK vs. DAL – May 21 at 3:00 p.m. ET
• Game 3: DAL vs. VGK – May 23 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• Game 4: DAL vs. VGK – May 25 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• *Game 5: VGK vs. DAL – May 27, TBD
• *Game 6: DAL vs. VGK – May 29, TBD
• *Game 7: VGK vs. DAL – May 31, TBD

Analytically, the Stars are the best team remaining in the playoffs. Dallas has a 55.5% expected goals-for rating through two rounds, generating a 57.1% high-danger chance rating. That advantage has been even more pronounced over the latter part of these playoffs, with the Stars posting expected goals-for ratings above 64.0% in four of their past six. 

Moreover, the Stars have dominated play at both ends of the ice. Dallas’ offense is running wild, attempting 12 or more quality chances in all but two of those outings, increasing their average to 11.7 over that stretch. Scoring chances are also up over that sample, with the team attempting 24 or more in four of six. 

As good as their offense has been, the Stars’ defense continues to separate them from the pack. Dallas has limited its opponents to nine or fewer high-danger opportunities in all but four of their seven games. Moreover, they were particularly staunch in the second round. The Stars held the Seattle Kraken to nine or fewer quality chances in five of their last six, including six or fewer in Games 5 through 7. 

That structure will be critical to corraling a well-balanced Golden Knights attack.

• Series Price: Golden Knights -140 | Stars +115
• Stanley Cup Odds: Golden Knights +230 | Stars +290

Of course, the Golden Knights are no slouches. Vegas effectively limited two of the best players in the game in the second round, holding Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to a combined six points at even strength. More importantly, they have similar defensive metrics supporting sustained pressure. 

Opponents have exceeded nine high-danger chances just once since the opening game of the playoffs, Game 6 of the second round. Still, seven of their 15 quality opportunities came in the third period as the Edmonton Oilers desperately tried to stave off elimination. Even with that outburst, Vegas limits opponents to an average of 8.2 quality chances per game.

• Stars +115
• Game 1/Series Parlay – Golden Knights/Stars +460

In a series as tightly contested as this one is expected to be, goaltending will be a critical x-factor. And that leaves an advantage in backing the Stars. 

Jake Oettinger has been a stalwart between the pipes and virtually unbeatable in consecutive games this season. The American netminder is 23-1-3 following a loss this season with a .933 save percentage. 

Goals will be few and far between in this series. Both teams possess elite defensive metrics and balanced scoring, but Oettinger could be the difference-maker that propels Dallas into the finals. 

We’re betting a Game 1/Series parlay, giving Vegas the advantage in the series opener. Still, we expect the Stars to defeat their Pacific Division opponents and are backing the underdogs at the current series price.