Not surprisingly, this past NHL season was another disappointing year for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Sure, you could point to them finishing second in the Atlantic for the second straight year, but that only validates their inability to keep pace with the best teams in the division. ‘What about their playoff win,’ you say? One series win doesn’t undo 56 years of incompetence, particularly when it’s followed by a sweep at the hands of the eighth-seeded wild card team in Round 2.
For a franchise that is as powerful and influential as the Maple Leafs are, they’ve become oddly complacent with accepting defeat.
The Leafs can’t keep running it back, hoping things will be different. It’s time for meaningful change in Toronto, and these three offseason moves will help them win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup.
Break Up the Core 4
When the Leafs started building this team iteration, the salary cap was expected to grow significantly over the coming years. However, a COVID-19-impacted campaign has resulted in a stagnant cap since 2017-18. That makes it increasingly difficult to sign their core of youngsters and remain compliant with the upper limit.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander are due hefty raises after this season, while Mitch Marner will need a bump in two years. Likewise, John Tavares’ current salary expires after the 2024-25 season; however, it’s expected that he’ll take a significant pay decrease on his next deal. Nevertheless, these four contracts hamstrung the Maple Leafs over the next couple of seasons.
Moving on from one of their four superstars gives Toronto the flexibility to build a more competitive roster from top to bottom. The added bonus is that it breathes new life into the dressing room and sends the message that losing in the playoffs isn’t acceptable.
Bring in a Top Tier Goaltender
For the past few seasons, Toronto has downplayed the importance of securing an elite goaltender, instead relying on discount options between the pipes. In 2022-23, Ilya Samsonov was the primary option. Before him, Jack Campbell stood tall in the blue paint. Heading into next year, it might be Joseph Woll’s time to shine. However, the Maple Leafs are doing their team a disservice by not bringing in an above-average netminder.
Of course, the Leafs’ contract situation among their forward corps makes investing heavily on the backend hard. Still, there are several affordable options Toronto could make work.
Former Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck has requested a trade from the Winnipeg Jets and carries a modest $6.16 million cap hit. Similarly, Carter Hart has been rumored to be on his way out of Philadelphia and is paid less than $4 million. The Anaheim Ducks have hung John Gibson out to dry long enough that the former top-tier goalie has demanded a fresh start.
It’s time to bring in a more reliable goaltender to stabilize the defending zone. Having a netminder to steal a few games or a series could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another early exit.
Re-Sign Ryan O’Reilly
No one can say Kyle Dubas didn’t give the Maple Leafs the best chance to compete. Year after year, the former General Manager made shrewd moves to build a cohesive forwards group. That was evident again by the Ryan O’Reilly trade, solidifying the bottom six. Now, the priority is bringing back the former Stanley Cup winner for another few seasons.
Albeit it was a limited sample, O’Reilly thrived in Toronto. The former Conn Smythe and Selke Trophy winner compiled a 62.2% high-danger chance rating and a 57.3% expected goals-for rating, ranking second and fourth on the team, respectively. This analytics success came despite starting most of his shifts in the defending zone. The Maple Leafs deployed O’Reilly in the attacking zone just 43.2% of the time.
The Leafs alternated O’Reilly between the top and bottom six. Irrespective of line, O’Reilly was a dominant force and top contributor, recording 11 points in 13 regular season outings and nine more in 11 playoff games.
Finding a way to re-sign O’Reilly should be at the top of the Leafs’ priority list. Winning doesn’t come naturally for the Leafs, and they can’t afford to pass on O’Reilly’s pedigree.
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