The Denver Nuggets jumped out to a 3-1 series lead in Game 4 of the Finals, and they’ll have a chance to win their franchise’s first NBA title tonight.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid and our daily NBA Game Picks.
Miami Heat (+295) vs. Denver Nuggets (-370) Total: 209 (O-110, U-110)After Miami stole Game 2 on the road and tied the NBA Finals at one, the Nuggets went into South Beach and won Games 3 and 4, leading to them having a chance to close things out tonight at home. Denver has won all three games by double-digits, meaning it’s not a surprise to see them listed as nine-point favorites. This series would already be over if it wasn’t for an explosive fourth quarter for Miami in their lone win.
Denver has proven to be the superior team, but with what Miami has overcome in the playoffs, it would be silly to dismiss them and think they won’t show up when their season’s on the line. Denver is still listed as a sizable home moneyline favorite at -370, while the Heat are priced at +295. There’s no value in backing the Nuggets at that price, meaning if you like for them to win, you will have to either back them to cover the spread or target the total and other player props.
5-Star Ratings from SportsGrid’s Player Prop Model
The Nuggets have been a strong team at pulling away as the games progress in this series, and that’s precisely what we expect them to do. The only Denver loss this postseason has been to the Heat, which the Nuggets were leading for a large portion of the game. Nikola Jokic’s crew has proven they’re a team on a mission. With a chance to close things tonight at home, look for them to find a way to win Game 5 by double-digits and get crowned with their first-ever NBA title.
Best Bet: Nuggets -9 (-110)
The Nuggets and Heat faced off twice during the regular season, which saw them combine to score 233 and 220 points. The first four games of the NBA Finals have seen 197, 219, 203, and 203 points scored. The total for Game 5 is 209, with the over and under priced at -110. Even though we saw two high-scoring games during the regular season, this series hasn’t seen a ton of offense. Denver has taken their game to an elite defensive level, while Miami hasn’t let the Nuggets explode offensively either. With that, targeting the under 209 makes sense from the trends this series has shown us.
Best Bet: Under 209 (-110)
All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.