UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria Undercard Preview & Best Bets

A top-10 featherweight bout headlines UFC on ABC 5 as No. 5 Josh Emmett takes on No. 9 Ilia Topuria. We break down a pair of exciting fights on the undercard.

• Date: Saturday, June 24, 2023 | Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena – Jacksonville, Florida, United States | TV: ABC

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Neil “The Haitian Sensation” Magny will take on Philip “The Fresh Prince” Rowe. At 35, Magny has rounded out a journeyman career at welterweight and is coming off a submission loss to Gilbert Burns. One of the more formidable fighters in the division, Magny is a step below the best welterweights but is 6-3 over his past nine bouts. Meanwhile, Rowe is on a roll, 3-1 in four UFC contests and 10-1 over his past 11 fights.

Emmett vs. Topuria Best Bets

Both fighters are six-foot-three, but Rowe will have a half-inch reach advantage. Rowe has more one-punch power than Magny, averaging 0.73 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. The Fresh Prince also lands at volume, averaging 4.39 significant strikes per minute to Magny’s 3.59. However, Rowe absorbs 2.72 more significant strikes per minute. Both fighters have similar takedown defense rates at 56 and 52 percent. Magny has the wrestling edge, averaging 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes to Rowe’s 0.81, while submission attempts slightly favor Rowe. Still, neither is terribly threatening on the ground.

There are several ways to approach this fight, with it likely going the distance. At -178, an outright bet on Magny is probably the safest wager, but Rowe by KO/TKO is pretty tempting at +420. Magny is such a grinder that it’s better to lean toward the safer play until we see a significant step back from him.

No. 9 Amanda Ribas is 1-1 since returning to the women’s flyweight division and faces No. 11 Maycee Barber, on a four-fight win streak. Ribas is 6-2 in eight UFC bouts but 2-2 over her last four. Barber is 7-2 in the UFC and 12-2 overall, with five knockouts and two submissions.

Barber is one inch taller, but Ribas has a one-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter has one-punch knockout power, but both land at volume. Ribas lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute, while Barber lands 4.27. They also absorb significant strikes at a similar clip at 2.65 and 2.63. Ribas should have a wrestling advantage averaging 0.93 more takedowns per 15 minutes. She also has an 88 percent takedown defense rate to Barber’s 47 percent.

Everything points in Ribas’s direction; take her to win outright at -210.