UFC Vegas 75: Vettori vs. Cannonier Preview & Best Bets

A middleweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 75 as No. 3 Marvin Vettori takes on No. 4 Jared Cannonier.

• Date: Saturday, June 17, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+

At 38 years old, Nicolas “Lokomotivo” Dalby enters the cage to meet 39-year-old Muslim “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov. Dalby is on a two-fight win streak, beating Claudio Silva and Warlley Alves. Salikhov is 1-1 over his last two bouts but 7-1 over his past eight.

Salikhov is an inch taller, but Dalby has a 4.5-inch reach advantage. Dalby is a gamer who can go to war but lacks one-punch knockout power. Lokomotivo lands an average of 3.74 significant strikes per minute to Salikhov’s 3.3. However, Dalby absorbs 0.92 more significant strikes per minute. The Dane is a solid boxer and ground fighter, but the Dagestani will have the wrestling advantage. The King of Kung Fu should have a slight advantage everywhere but also throws unorthodox strikes.

It’s tough to call a finish in this fight but take Salikhov to win outright at -188.

It looks like No. 8 Arman Tsarukyan‘s next victim is Joaquim Silva. Tsarukyan is a massive favorite at -1300 outright. He’s 6-1 over his last seven fights, losing to Mateusz Gamrot and beating Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, Christos Giagos, Joel Alvarez, and Damir Ismagulov. Silva is 1-2 over his previous three bouts and 2-3 over the last five.

Silva is an inch taller, but Tsarukyan will have a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Tsarukyan is a plus athlete and very explosive. Silva lands an average of 4.08 significant strikes per minute to Tsarukyan’s 3.56. However, Silva absorbs 2.65 more per minute. The Armenian averages 3.09 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Silva attempts 0.62 more submissions over the same period.

At -1300, we’re not taking Tsarukyan outright, but a finish seems likely in this fight. Tsarukyan has seven of his 19 wins by knockout and five by submission. Silva has lost by knockout twice over his last three fights, so it seems more likely Tsarukyan will win by KO/TKO at -130.

• Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier
• Odds to Win: Vettori -118 | Cannonier -104
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +195 | Submission +750 | Decision -175
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes -166 | No +120

Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori takes on Jared “Tha Killa Gorilla” Cannonier, both trying to re-establish their contender status at middleweight. Vettori is 2-2 over his previous four bouts but 7-2 over his last nine. Cannonier is 3-1 over his past four and 6-2 over his last eight.

Vettori is an inch taller, but Cannonier will have a 3.5-inch reach advantage. This fight will be a clash of styles, with Cannonier looking for a knockout and Vettori looking to take the fight to the ground. Vettori lands 0.38 more significant strikes per minute and also absorbs 0.21 fewer. Tha Killa Gorilla has one-hit knockout power, picking up ten of his 16 wins by KO/TKO. The Italian Dream will have the wrestling advantage, averaging 1.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes and a better takedown defense rate. Of the two, Vettori is the more well-rounded fighter.

This fight is a pick ’em, but at 39, Cannonier is a decade older than Vettori. Vettori should compete better at Cannonier’s strength than the reverse, so we’re taking the Italian to win outright at -118.

• Salikhov to win (-188)
• Tsarukyan by KO/TKO (-130)
• Vettori to win (-118)

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