UFC Vegas 76: Strickland vs. Magomedov Preview & Best Bets

A middleweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 76 as No. 7 Sean Strickland takes on Abus Magomedov.

• Date: Saturday, July 1, 2023 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+

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No. 14 ranked heavyweight Alexander “King Kong” Romanov takes on No. 15 Blagoy “Bagata” Ivanov. Romanov comes in on the heels of back-to-back losses after reeling off 16 straight wins. Meanwhile, Ivanov has lost three of his past four fights.

Romanov will enter the cage three inches taller and have a two-inch reach advantage. However, he lacks the one-punch knockout power you expect from a heavyweight. Ivanov also doesn’t pack a huge punch but averages 0.13 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Romanov’s zero. However, Romanov averages 0.33 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.01 fewer. King Kong also averages 4.18 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Ivanov. Still, Bagata has an impressive 70 percent takedown defense rate.

Romanov should have the edge with better striking defense and a more active takedown game. Romanov outright at -144 is the safer bet, but taking him to win by decision pays an attractive +380.

No. 12 ranked lightweight Damir Ismagulov faces No. 15 Grant “KGD” Dawson. Ismagulov enters the cage off a loss to Arman Tsarukyan but had a 19-fight win streak before that. Meanwhile, Dawson is on an 11-fight unbeaten streak (10 wins, one draw), with two straight submission finishes.

Both fighters are five-foot-ten, but Ismagulov will have a two-inch reach advantage. Ismagulov lands an average of 3.78 significant strikes per minute to Dawson’s 3.12 while only absorbing 0.10 more. Dawson will have the takedown edge, averaging 2.63 more per 15 minutes than Ismagulov. Still, the Russian has a 75 percent takedown defense rate. KGD also averages 1.55 submissions per 15 minutes to Ismagulov’s zero.

The sportsbook has the bout as a pick ’em at -110 for each fighter. However, Ismagulov should have a slight edge in this fight.

• Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov
• Odds to Win: Strickland -164 | Magomedov +134
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +110 | Submission +550 | Decision +110
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +116 | No -146

Sean Strickland returns to middleweight after one win over Nassourdine Imavov at light heavyweight. He’ll face Abus Magomedov, who won his UFC debut against Dustin Stoltzfus by TKO in 19 seconds. Magomedov is riding a three-fight win streak, last losing to Louis Taylor in 2018.

Magomedov will be one inch taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. With Magomedov only having one UFC fight that lasted all of 19 seconds, it’s tough to measure his fight statistics. Still, he exhibits significant power, ending 14 of his 25 wins by KO/TKO. He’s much less of a submission threat but has six wins by tapout. Strickland lands an impressive average of 5.75 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.25. He also gets 1.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and has an 85 percent takedown defense rate.

Strickland is a consistent performer, so the safer bet would be on the American at -164 against the UFC newcomer Magomedov.

• Romanov by decision (+380)
• Ismagulov to win (-110)
• Strickland to win (-164)