Home Run Derby Picks: Best Bets For Long-Ball Bash In Seattle

Don’t let “them” fool you when “they” say this is the slowest week in sports. If you’re a bettor, there are plenty of ways to still have some action, starting with Monday night’s Home Run Derby in Seattle.

Some of the game’s top sluggers will do battle at T-Mobile Park, the home of the Mariners with the championship belt on the line.

Juan Soto won’t be returning to defend his 2022 crown, but two-time derby champion Pete Alonso is back in the field. He’s the only past champion who will be stepping into the box Monday night, but also in the mix is Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Toronto infielder actually holds two derby records after setting a single-round mark (40) in 2019 while also hitting more home runs (91) in that contest than anyone has ever hit in a single contest.

Yet, Guerrero Jr. lost that year in the finals to Alonso in this relatively new format where players duke it out in a bracket.

Before making some picks, here’s this year’s home run derby bracket:

Home run derby champion odds (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pete Alonso +320
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +350
Luis Robert Jr. +400
Julio Rodriguez +500
Adolis García+700
Randy Arozarena +950
Mookie Betts +1800
Adley Rutschman +2000

So, where to start when it comes to handicapping the Home Run Derby? Let’s begin with the ballpark. T-Mobile Park — the stadium formerly known as Safeco Field — has been around for more than 20 years now. This is the second All-Star Game they’ve hosted since opening. The first came back in 2001 when Arizona Diamondbacks slugger Luis Gonzalez won the derby in the midst of a peculiar power spike in his mid-30s. He finished that season with 57 (!) home runs, 26 more than any other season in his 19-year career. It’s kind of hard to glean anything from that era for a whole host of reasons we don’t need to relitigate.

Now, when it comes to park factor, hitting dingers at T-Mobile Park is slightly more difficult than league average over a three-year rolling total. When you break it up by handedness, though, it ranks 24th by park factor for hitting home runs for left-handed hitters and 14th for right-handed hitters.

As for the type of player you might want to target, there’s almost too much information out there. For the sake of trying to pick a winner here, we zeroed in on exit velocity and barrels per plate appearance. Guys who hit the ball the hardest are probably going to do well. In that regard, no one is better than Guerrero, who ranks in the top 15 in each statistic.

Admitting this is completely unscientific, here’s how the field ranks when you average their standing in the two metrics.

Guerrero Jr. (9.5)
García (18.5)
Arozarena (25.5)
Betts (28)
Rodriguez (59)
Alonso (79)
Robert (84)
Rutschman (183)

Guerrero is the popular pick. He opened at +400 but was bet down to +350 at BetMGM Sportsbook, and as of Monday morning, he had the highest ticket percentage of anyone in the field. If you had to make a pick to save your life, he’s probably the guy, but you couldn’t go wrong with Alonso, either.

Luckily, this isn’t a life-or-death scenario, so these home run derby picks can go a little off the board.

Pick to win: Adolis García (+700)
Have you ever seen the man? The Cuban slugger is a massive human being, packing 205 pounds into his 6-foot-1 frame, the bulk of which seems to come from his biceps and forearms. He has improved his plate discipline since breaking into the big leagues, but he has proved he can hit just about any pitch in any location over the fence — a key component for a timed round. Few players in the field can generate repeatable power through the ground as García can, too, which could help ward off fatigue. The other major selling point for him is the draw. If he can get past fellow countryman, Arozarena, in the first round, the path is open. Meanwhile, the other side of the bracket is loaded, ensuring he’ll only need to go through one of the two favorites or the hometown guy to get it done.

Distance of longest home run: UNDER 485.5 feet (-112)
Take away Coors Field in 2021, and there hasn’t been a home run longer than 482 feet in the derby since 2017. We’ve also never seen anyone (in a game) hit one farther than 470 feet at T-Mobile Park. Not even artificial inflation could break that number in the 2001 derby, either. Betting the under here isn’t fun, but it does feel like the right pick.