Los Angeles Chargers NFL Season Wins Total: Over/Under 9.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are expected to be a prime contender in the AFC West and have a projected win total of 9.5 in 2023-24.

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Justin Herbert and the Chargers are coming off a 10-7 season before they were ousted in the Wild-Card round by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Expectations will continue being elevated for a team with a loaded offense and a defense that should take another step forward.

In 2022-23, Herbert threw for 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns. In terms of touchdowns and overall production, this was a step back for Herbert after his first two seasons in the league. The talent level is evident, and if the Chargers hope to go on a run in a talented AFC, they’ll need Herbert to take another step forward.

Austin Ekeler had some drama surrounding his contract in the offseason, but the productive running back will continue being the feature back for the club. The Chargers added another wide receiver to the fold in the NFL draft, with Quentin Johnston joining the group. 

The Chargers were amongst an elite group in pass defense last year, and we’re projecting that to continue. The biggest issue on defense last year revolved around their pass rush, which ranked 30th in pass-rush win rate and 21st in pressure rate. A healthy Joey Bosa and Derwin James should pay dividends for the Chargers. If the defense is even slightly above league average, big things should be in store for the Chargers in 2023-24. 

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Looking at their strength of schedule, the Chargers won’t have an easy path to wins. LA has the sixth-hardest schedule entering 2023-24, which could impact whether you believe they’ll win double-digit games again. The AFC West should see an improved Denver Broncos squad while the Kansas Chiefs continue to be the class of the NFL. It won’t be a cakewalk for the Chargers this year. Still, there are many reasons to be bullish about this football team.

We’re continuing to buy into Herbert and his development while also expecting much more from the Chargers defensively. As a result, there’s good reason to buy into the Chargers to go over their win total of 9.5, even if the price is slightly juiced at -128. 

Verdict: Chargers Over 9.5 wins (-128) 

All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.