MLB Home Run Derby Predictions: Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Overrated?

The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby is just around the corner, and predictions are pouring in from all corners. It’s the time of the season when every home run hitter looks to etch their name in the record books. However, this year, some unexpected patterns are emerging.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is high on everyone’s watchlist, but his usual flare seems to be missing this season. The young slugger, who typically displays an excellent track record in home run hitting, isn’t entirely meeting expectations. Guerrero Jr. usually boasts around 20 home runs by this point in the season, yet he’s only hit 13.

So, is Guerrero Jr. overrated? Or is he merely having a slow start? It’s too soon to label him definitively, but some areas of his game seem lackadaisical, especially his conditioning, which could be impacting his performance.

On the other hand, Pete Alonzo is still the favorite in the betting markets for the upcoming Home Run Derby at +260. But his short odds aren’t tempting many bettors searching for better value elsewhere.

One potential dark horse in the race is Adolis Garcia. He’s steadily built his reputation and could be the surprise victor in the Home Run Derby. At +700, Garcia’s odds are much higher than Alonzo’s, but his recent form suggests he’s a serious contender.

Here are the current betting odds for the Home Run Derby:

• Pete Alonzo: +260
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: +350
• Luis Robert Jr.: +450
• Julio Rodriguez: +650
• Adolis Garcia: +700
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• Randy Arozarena: +1000

While Guerrero Jr. at +350 might be an attractive bet for those thinking he will turn his fortunes around, Garcia’s +700 odds are more appealing for value seekers.

This year’s Home Run Derby is shaping up to be a spectacle full of potential surprises: Will Guerrero Jr. shake off his slow start and reclaim his throne? Or will Garcia continue his rise and upset the favorites? One thing is for sure; baseball fans are in for a thrilling Home Run Derby this year.

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