NFL Odds: Jaguars On Right Track, But How High Is Jacksonville’s Ceiling?

Tune in to the “Ultimate Betting Show” on NESN or NESN360 on Friday at 5:30 p.m. ET for NFL training camp previews. Next up: the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2023 season in a spot they rarely have been over the course of their nearly 30 years as an NFL franchise: as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The Jags seem to have fully put the woeful Urban Meyer experiment behind them, and there’s real reason for optimism ahead of Year 2 under Doug Pederson.

Jacksonville won the AFC South last season for the first time since 2017 and staged a historic comeback to earn a wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jags even took Kansas City to the wire in the divisional round before a second comeback attempt fell just short.

There is undoubtedly plenty on which the Jaguars can build entering 2023. They are the clear favorite to win the division, something reflected by the betting odds, and if the postseason map falls their way, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Trevor Lawrence and company make a deep playoff run.

2022 in review
9-8 (lost in divisional round)
10-9 ATS
9-10 over/under

Key offseason additions
WR Calvin Ridley
OT Anton Harrison (draft)

Key offseason losses
WR Marvin Jones
EDGE Dawuane Smoot
OT Jawaan Taylor

Look ahead to 2023 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Super Bowl: +2800
Conference: +1500
Division: -155
Win total: 9.5 (over -150)
To make playoffs: Yes -200 | No +158

2023 award contenders
MVP: Trevor Lawrence +1600
Offensive Player of the Year: Travis Etienne +6000
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tank Bigsby +8000
Coach of the Year: Doug Pederson +2000

2023 outlook
The Jags are largely running it back from 2022. Their biggest offseason moves largely centered around re-signing their own players, star tight end Even Engram included. It seems the hope is that another year with Pederson calling the shots paired with natural progression from players like Lawrence and Etienne makes a major difference. Getting Ridley into the mix could be huge, too. The third season is typically make-or-break for young quarterbacks, and the Jaguars have really given Lawrence the tools to succeed. With Engram, Etienne, Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to choose from, Lawrence is an intriguing MVP option at 16-1.

The defense will need to improve, too. The Jaguars were great at forcing turnovers (27) last season, but they allowed 27 points or more nine times, going 3-6 in those games. Some of that is on the offense that turned it over three times or more in three games, a trio of contests in which the Jags still somehow went 2-1. That’s playing with fire, though. If they clean up those sorts of things — which is a hallmark of a young team continuing to progress — they could take advantage of a very bad division and have themselves set up for a home playoff game or two, and who knows what can happen then.