UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura Preview & Best Bets

A men’s heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 224 as No. 5 Tom Aspinall takes on No. 10 Marcin Tybura.

• Date: Saturday, July 22, 2023 | Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: The O2 Arena – London, England | TV: ESPN+

No. 9 ranked light heavyweight Paul “Bearjew” Craig moves down to middleweight to face Andre “Sergipano” Muniz. Craig is looking to rebound off two straight losses but had been riding a six-fight unbeaten streak (five wins, one draw). Of those six fights, Craig has three submissions and two technical knockouts. Muniz is also coming off a loss but had a nine-fight win streak before that.

Of all the middleweights for Craig to face, Muniz is one of the worst matchups for him. Craig is two inches taller, but Muniz will have a two-inch reach advantage. Craig isn’t a great athlete, and his biggest strength, grappling, is an area where Muniz is proficient. Muniz is the better wrestler, and their submission abilities are, at best, a wash. Craig takes a lot of damage on the feet, absorbing 2.88 significant strikes per minute.

Take Muniz to win at -230.

The popular Molly “Meatball” McCann enters the cage off a submission loss to Erin Blanchfield but had three straight wins before that. Facing McCann will be Julija Stoliarenko, who is 1-4 over five UFC fights.

Stoliarenko is three inches taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. McCann’s weakness is her ground game, and nine of Stoliarenko’s ten wins are by submission. Still, this fight screams of a hometown setup for McCann. Meatball has a sub-par takedown defense rate at 44 percent, but Stoliarenko does not have an excellent takedown game, averaging 0.7 per 15 minutes. On the feet, McCann lands 5.72 significant strikes per minute, while Stoliarenko absorbs 4.61 per minute. McCann doesn’t have much one-punch power, but she could overwhelm Stoliarenko with volume.

Take McCann to win at -215.

• Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
• Odds to Win: Aspinall -500 | Tybura +360
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -250 | Submission +290 | Decision +750
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +750 | No -1450

No. 5 Tom Aspinall returns to the cage after a year layoff after his knee injury against Curtis Blaydes. Across the Octagon will be No. 10 Marcin “Tybur” Tybura. Before Aspinall’s loss to Blaydes, he was on an eight-fight win streak, winning all by finish (six KO/TKO, two submissions). Tybura is on a two-fight win streak, beating Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov.

Aspinall is two inches taller, but they have an identical reach of 78 inches. Aspinall has more stopping power, averaging two knockdowns per 15 minutes to Tybura’s 0.07. He lands a staggering 7.41 significant strikes per minute to Tybura’s 3.55. Aspinall also absorbs 0.44 fewer. The Brit is the more active wrestler, averaging 2.61 more takedowns per 15 minutes while sporting a 100 percent takedown defense rate. In addition, Aspinall averages two submissions to Tybura’s 0.07.

All the numbers favor Aspinall, but ring rust is a thing. Tybura is a tough, well-rounded heavyweight. Still, the Pole is not as athletic and dynamic as the Englishman, but he could pull off a decision upset. That said, Aspinall should win this bout, but we need to find a better angle than the -500 odds we’re getting for the outright win. Tybura has never lost by submission, so taking Aspinall by KO/TKO at -150 is probably our best bet.

• Muniz to win (-230)
• McCann to win (-215)
• Aspinall by KO/TKO (-150)

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