As the NBA off-season rolls along, one thing remains consistent, Victor Wembanyama is the favorite for Rookie of the Year, albeit a fluctuating one. He was a -200 favorite at one point, but his odds have softened slightly, currently sitting around -130. Scoot Henderson, priced at +380, trails closely behind.
There’s been a surprising shift. Chet Holmgren, the player who was once the preseason favorite last year before a season-ending injury, has returned to the race at +400. Suddenly, fans and analysts remember the Oklahoma City Thunder big man as a formidable contender.
A little further down the list, we have Brandon Miller at +1600, Amen Thompson at longer odds, and then a sizable jump to Jarace Walker at a whopping +7500.
Despite the shifts in odds, it’s worth noting that Wembanyama is still the favorite. Still, given recent summer league performances and the impressive stat line he put together on Sunday, it’s surprising his odds haven’t shortened even more.
One of the intriguing aspects of this race is Wembanyama’s unique physicality. Standing close to 7 ft five, Wembanyama is not your typical big man. He can play significant minutes each game, exposing him to potential injury risks associated with his towering, lanky frame.
Enter Gregg Popovich‘s strategy of load management. Suppose the Spurs aren’t performing well this season, but Wembanyama proves to be a superstar. Would they play him for 75-80 games? Highly unlikely, given the heightened risk of injury for taller players.
Thus, Wembanyama’s Rookie of the Year bid is not as clear-cut as it seems. Yes, his talent could potentially surpass his competitors, but there are limits he must navigate in the NBA, particularly regarding game appearances. If he only plays 60 games, regardless of his performances, his Rookie of the Year odds could be compromised.
Therefore, don’t count out Scoot Henderson yet. If Wembanyama’s total games played aren’t a formidable amount, Henderson could be in a prime position to snatch up the Rookie of the Year accolade, making this a race to watch till the end.
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