Why United States Will (Will Not) Win Women’s World Cup

The United States national team is poised to win its third straight FIFA Women’s World Cup, and the only thing stopping it is itself.

It’s a cliché phrase, but it is one befitting a team that is a consensus favorite across all major sportsbooks. Alex Morgan and Sophia Smith are the favorites to win the Golden Boot and Alyssa Naeher is the favorite to win the Golden Glove.

Despite Megan Rapinoe playing in her final World Cup, the United States continues to develop talent that can compete at the highest level. But the U.S. has not been as dominant as it was in previous years. The reasoning is two-fold.

First, the world has caught up to the United States. England has invested much more into its women’s program in the past decade and a half, which is why it has grown into the status as the second-best team in the tournament. A United States-England final is the most-bet matchup at BetMGM, according to data analyst John Ewing.

The U.S. shouldn’t have trouble winning Group E, but the knockout rounds will be more difficult than they were a decade ago.

The other reason for the lack of dominance from the United States is the lack of tactical flexibility from head coach Vlatko Andonovski. The July 9 friendly against Wales was a clear showcase of this.

The United States tends to get predictable in its attack and informational shape. Teams catch on to this and can easily break up combinations and keep the United States’ attack stagnant. Against inferior opposition, talent rises to the occasion. But against strong opponents, the U.S. risks elimination.

The 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo marked a low point for the U.S. It lost 3-0 to Sweden in the opening group matchup and drew 0-0 to Australia to finish second in Group G. The U.S. lost 1-0 to Canada in the semifinals and Andonovski’s tenure was questioned.

The case for Andonovski is the United States wasn’t as technically sound under his predecessor Jill Ellis. Her teams also got away with its superior talent, and her greatest strength was being the best player-manager.

However, the growth of other nations showed the U.S. couldn’t get away with this style of play for too long. The goal for a successful program should be a sound process and not just focused on results.

No matter the result, this likely will be Andonovski’s last major tournament as United States head coach. That’s just the typical life cycle of a national team manager, and it feels like there needs to be another voice to lead the locker room. But Andonovski must refine his process to deliver the results and end his tenure on a positive note.

The United States has a better mix of youth in its World Cup squad compared to the Olympic team. The key will be how players like Smith, Alana Cook and Trinity Rodman step up for injured players like Becky Sauerbrunn, Mallory Swanson, Sam Mewis and Midge Purce. Rose Lavelle and Julie Ertz also have fitness concerns, and they especially are needed against stronger opponents.

Lindsey Horan will have to step up as a creator, and Smith and Rodman will have to show they can step up on the international stage and play as well as they have at club level. Rodman is 6-1 to lead the U.S. in goals at FanDuel, which isn’t a bad bet if she starts.

Morgan might be asked to help out with link-up play, which would serve well to utilize the pace of the team’s wingers. The key is the U.S. can’t just be a team that crosses the ball into the box and hope something good happens. There needs to be more creativity in the attack to find ways to disrupt a defense and get the opposition unbalanced.

If the United States wants to become the first team in World Cup history to three-peat, then it must have a complete effort from its players and manager.