The Big 12 Conference is rapidly evolving, and 2023 will be the final season with Texas and Oklahoma before they move to the SEC. The two schools are favorites to win the league, but there is parity, unlike most, with a powerful “middle class” capable of knocking off anyone on a given Saturday. Kansas State is the defending champion, sitting third on the list of odds at +500. This is the first season in the conference for newcomers BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston, and it is unknown how those schools will handle the week-to-week rigor of a power conference.
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Big 12 Favorite: Texas +100
The Texas Longhorns are nearly even money to win the Big 12 in their final season before moving to the SEC. The Longhorns return 15 starters, including quarterback Quinn Ewers and perhaps the nation’s best offensive line. Texas has to replace Bijan Robinson but receivers Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and Adonai Mitchell, plus tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders should give Ewers a bounty of weapons, and the offensive line will provide him with all kinds of time to operate. The defense has to improve for Texas to go from “good” to “great.” Steve Sarkisian turned to the transfer portal to add talent and depth on that side of the ball. A September 9 showdown at Alabama highlights the schedule, but the conference slate sees Texas getting Kansas State and Texas Tech both at home.
Big 12 Sleeper Prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders +1100
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are entering year number two under head coach Joey McGuire. His first season was a significant success, and there is a lot of excitement in Lubbock surrounding the program. The Red Raiders return 14 starters, including quarterback Tyler Shough and dynamic offensive coordinator Zach Kittley. They averaged 34.2 points per game in 2022 and expect better in 2023. The offensive line was riddled with injuries last season, and we hope to have better health, plus the addition of West Virginia transfer center Rusty Staats. Texas Tech has a September 9 home contest with Oregon highlighting the non-conference slate, but the conference schedule matters for this pick. They do not have to play Oklahoma; they get Kansas State and TCU both at home. It would not be a shock to see Texas Tech earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, and at +1100, there is value in the Red Raiders.
Favorite Over Big 12 Pick: Texas Tech – 7.5 Wins and Oklahoma State – 6.5 Wins
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are the pick for going over 7.5, with the odds priced at +110. Another one worth looking at is Oklahoma State going over 6.5 wins. That is a bet on the track record of Mike Gundy more than anything else. Gundy has won at least seven games every season since he went 4-7 in his first year in charge (2005) in Stillwater. The Cowboys have a lot of question marks with only two starters back on defense, a new coordinator, and a new quarterback expected in Alan Bowman. Brennan Presley and De’Zhaun Stribling provide threats on offense, but the schedule is worth making a bet on. OK State gets Central Arkansas, Arizona State, and South Alabama in non-conference play. That means you only need four wins in the Big 12 to surpass this number. They avoid Texas and TCU with games against all four conference newcomers at the back end of the schedule. Those teams could be worn down by that time, an advantage for the Cowboys.
Favorite Under Big 12 Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats – 5 Wins
The Bearcats are not in the American Athletic Conference, and they picked an unfortunate time to rebuild with a new head coach. Scott Satterfield is in after Luke Fickell took the Wisconsin head coaching position. Satterfield is a good coach, but the vast majority of the players that were a part of the Cincinnati juggernaut the past two seasons have all departed, and the schedule is daunting. The non-conference features likely wins against Eastern Kentucky and Miami of Ohio but a potential loss at Pittsburgh. The Bearcats do not play Texas but have road games at BYU, Oklahoma State, Houston, and West Virginia. That leaves tough home matchups against Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, UCF, and Kansas. With significant questions across the roster, Cincinnati might only be favored in two conference games, and it is hard to see them getting to bowl eligibility.
Top Big 12 Heisman Candidate: Quinn Ewers +1200
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers is the top Heisman Trophy candidate from the Big 12. He has the third-shortest odds in the country and is behind only Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Ewers played in ten games in 2022 and showcased the talents that had him as a consensus five-star recruit. The most enticing thing about him as a Heisman Trophy bet is the talent around him and the opportunity to be showcased. In the second week of the season, the Longhorns travel to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama. If Ewers performs well and Texas wins, he’ll move from +1200 to a much shorter number. If you believe in Texas against Alabama, taking Ewers now would be the smart bet.
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