Draft Day to Pay Day: Offensive Rookies of the Year Betting Guide

by

Aug 11, 2023

The NFL season is on the horizon, and rookies are the talk of the town, but how do the betting odds look, and what are the expectations for these freshmen?

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There’s a lot to keep an eye on:

  • Bryce Young suits up for Carolina, surrounded by a team some might call less than elite.
  • CJ Stroud showed some rookie jitters in his first preseason, leaving fans and analysts questioning his season outlook.
  • Anthony Richardson will take the field on August 13.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs might play on August 11 against the Giants.

But let’s talk about the betting odds on Bijan Robinson at +300 and Bryce Young at +400. These numbers hint at potential value elsewhere in the market.

The past decade has historically shown an eclectic mix of Offensive Rookies of the Year. Notably, wide receivers have snagged the award twice consecutively. Yet, the decade has produced only three wide receiver winners, juxtaposed against four running backs and three quarterbacks. This varied distribution suggests the market’s unpredictability.

With high expectations for Robinson, especially considering Atlanta’s projected heavy running game, one might be tempted to back him. Atlanta seems keen on controlling the game’s tempo, possibly leaning on Robinson’s prowess. While Arthur Smith, known for his offensive genius, may wish to diversify with more passing plays, the strategy seems predominantly run-heavy. However, is Robinson’s current price the right entry point? Given the pattern of rookie running backs – who often don’t kick off with a bang – there’s a likelihood of fetching better odds if you hold off on Robinson for now.

Another intriguing option is Zay Flowers at +3000. Given the new dynamics of the Ravens’ offense, with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup, will Flowers receive enough targets from Lamar Jackson to have a standout season? Considering the recent explosive performances from Garrett Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase, Flowers’s situation warrants attention.

While the season is rife with promise and many potential breakout rookies, the betting market remains a tricky landscape. It would be wise to tread carefully and make informed decisions based on evolving game scenarios and odds fluctuations.

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Thumbnail photo via Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports

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