FIBA World Cup Betting Insights: Canada and USA Seeing Huge Action

As the FIBA World Cup approaches, betting action on futures markets has heated up, and there’s a lot to digest in terms of odds and trends. Here, we break down the key insights and provide an update on where the smart money is going.

Line movement (Open to Current)

• USA -165 to -120
• France +1000 to +700
• Canada +1400 to +1000

Canada opened with +1400 odds, but those odds have shortened to +1000 due to increased betting action. It’s interesting to note that despite having a relatively high opening line, Canada has attracted a massive 39.8% of tickets, which leads the way. Their 14.3% handle suggests that while attracting many bets, they are of the smaller money variety. Perhaps bettors are trying to cash in on Canada’s desirable odds. This indicates that bettors are bullish on Canada’s chances and are willing to back them at the current odds.

Highest Ticket%

• Canada 39.8%
• USA 28.9%
• France 6.0%

The USA, unsurprisingly, started as heavy favorites with odds of -165 and still are at -120. They are dominating the betting scene, in second by attracting 28.9% of tickets, but dominating in money wagered with a  whopping 82.1% of the handle. Many bettors believe the USA is the team to beat and are putting big money behind them.

Highest Handle%

• USA 82.1%
• Canada 14.3%
• France 1.2%

France, another strong contender, started at +1000 odds and has seen those odds shorten to +700. Despite the movement in odds, they’ve attracted a relatively small 6.0% of tickets and only 1.2% of the handle. It’s unclear if the low betting interest reflects a lack of confidence in France or if bettors are simply waiting for better odds.

Slovenia opened at +1000 odds but has drifted out to +1600. The change suggests that bettors have cooled on Slovenia’s chances, reflected in the 4.8% of tickets and 0.3% of the handle they’ve attracted.

Serbia started at +500 odds and has seen a significant drift to +1400. The move has to be directly in response to Nikola Jokic deciding to skip the tournament in late July. Despite the drift, they have attracted a decent 3.6% of tickets and 1.0% of the handle. This indicates that some bettors still see value in Serbia at the current odds.

Initially at +900, Australia has seen little change in odds, now sitting at +1000. They’ve attracted 2.4% of tickets and 0.3% of the handle, suggesting that bettors are somewhat cautious about their chances.

Despite being a historically strong team, Spain opened at +1100 and has drifted to +1400 odds. They’ve attracted a modest 2.4% of tickets and 0.2% of the handle, which may indicate skepticism about their chances.

Lastly, Greece opened at +900 and has drifted significantly to +2500 odds. Greece seemed to have a decent chance to at least compete with all-world star Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster, but his announcing he will not play a few weeks ago is the biggest reason for the tumbling odds. This move seems to have affected betting interest, as they’ve only attracted 1.2% of tickets and 0.1% of the handle.

Biggest Liability

• Canada
• USA
• Angola

While the Americans dominate the handle, Canada has the highest ticket percentage. France and Serbia may be dark horses with the potential to offer value, while Greece seems to be losing favor with bettors.

Remember, the odds can shift dramatically as the tournament approaches and events unfold. Monitor the trends and make informed decisions as you place your bets. 

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