Illinois Fighting Illini Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick
It’s been quite the turnaround in Champaign for Illinois under Bret Bielema. Their eight wins in 2022 were the program’s most since 2007, the first winning season for the Illini since 2011, and their second-place finish in the West was their highest ever in division play. The Fighting Illini have posted a winning record in consecutive seasons once since 1990… once!
Can Bielema’s team do it again?
Illinois Fighting Illini Preview2022 Record: 8-5 (5-4); Big Ten Finish: 2nd in B1G West (Tied)
A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 43
Head Coach: Bret Bielema: 13-12 (9-9) | 3rd Season | Overall: 110-70
Offensive Coordinator: Barry Lunney Jr. (2nd Season)
Co-Defensive Coordinator: Aaron Henry (1st Season; 3rd w/ Illinois), Terrance Jamison (1st Season; 3rd w/ Illinois)
Illinois Fighting Illini Futures Odds (FanDuel)National Championship Odds: +25000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +20000
B1G Championship Odds: +5000 | B1G West Odds: +550
Win 6+ Games: -250 | Undefeated Regular Season: +4500
Regular Season Wins: OVER 6.5 +118 | UNDER 6.5 -104
Big Ten West Previews: Iowa | Minnesota | Nebraska | Wisconsin |
Big Ten East Previews: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers |
National Previews: Georgia | Notre Dame | USC
Illinois Preview: Why You Should Be BullishThey retained critical pieces to their defensive front, including five defensive line and linebacker starters. The lynchpin is Jer’Zhan Newton, the most disruptive interior lineman in 2022 when he produced 59 pressures and 13 tackles for loss. If he’s Batman, Keith Randolph Jr. is an ideal Robin who helps Newton anchor the D-line and is another force on the inside. Outside linebackers, Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas know how to take advantage of all the attention the big boys up front get. Jacas was a Freshman All-American with four sacks and is expected to blossom as an edge rusher. Former four-four-star recruit Alec Bryant is having an excellent camp and could push for PT on the edge. In the middle is reliable veteran Tarique Barnes.
Fighting Illini Preview: Why You Should Be BearishThey lost a lot of talent to the NFL, which is not a position Illinois is accustomed to. No unit was hit harder than a secondary that saw a corner go fifth overall in the NFL Draft and had two safeties hear their names called on Day 2. Four of their top five DBs from last year are in NFL camps. Star running back Chase Brown was also drafted. There are nine former Illini from the previous year’s squad currently on NFL teams, including quarterback Tommy DeVito, who was a stabilizing force for the offense when he came over from Syracuse. That’s significant production to replace and doesn’t even include leading tackler Isaac Darkangelo, especially for a program that hasn’t had a top 50 recruiting class since 2019.
Breakout Player: RB Josh McCray, SophomoreI loved what I saw from Josh McCray as an unheralded true freshman in 2021 when he rushed for 549 yards (4.9 YPC) with his massive frame and surprising burst. An injury limited him to 19 carries a year ago, but he is back healthy and, according to reports looking slimmer with increased agility. Brown had over 70 percent of the Illini’s carries last season, probably because of McCray’s injury, and I expect the redshirt sophomore will be the primary ball carrier in 2023. Recruited as a linebacker by several SEC teams, the Alabama native runs like it, which is to say he’ll remind you of the backs that Bielema had during his days in Madison.
X-Factor: QB Luke Altmyer, SophomoreAs it is for many teams, the most significant swing position is quarterback. Even though they lost Brown, the No. 2 rusher in program history, they should be OK at running back with Reggie Love III and Josh McCray; they return three starters on the O-line (including two NFL prospects) and three of their top four receivers led by Isaiah Williams and Pat Bryant. They were improved last season on offense…can they continue that trajectory? If so, the Illini must hit on transfer QB Luke Altmyer, formerly of Ole Miss. A former four-star and top-200 recruit in the class of 2021, Altmyer has a higher ceiling than DeVito, but can he limit turnovers and play efficient football? DeVito completed 69.6% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 15 TDs (4 INTs). Solid. Altmyer has the arm talent and running ability to move the Illini offense forward but is an unproven commodity.
Illinois Schedule AnalysisAfter opening the season against a dangerous Toledo squad (only a 9.5-point favorite), Illinois travels to Lawrence to take on the Kansas Jayhawks (+1) in an early swing game. It’s not killer, but they could have made it easier on themselves out of conference. The Illini went 1-2 against the B1G East last season despite getting two non-bowl teams (Indiana, MSU) along with Michigan. They get IU again but will surely be the underdogs against Penn State (home) and Maryland (road). Illinois plays the two highest-ranked teams on their schedule (Wisconsin, PSU) and probably the four worst at home. At the same time, they must travel to their next four most formidable opponents (Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, and Iowa). I’d rather have those games at home if my goal were to secure at least six wins.
Illinois Prediction: OVER/UNDER 6.5 WinsLet’s say we give Illinois wins over Toledo, FAU, Nebraska, Indiana, and Northwestern with losses to PSU, Wisky, and Iowa (road). Can they win two more games from KU, Maryland, Minnesota, and Purdue (all on the road)? They could, but considering all the upheaval (coaching staff included), I’m not sold they do. Sure, they lost some close games last season, but how does the defense not drop off? They lost their DC, an elite secondary, and even with that talent, the Illini were the most-bend-but-don’t-break unit in the country (No. 1 with 21.4 yards per point). There’s no reason to expect the offense will make up for it, so I don’t envision them matching last season’s win total, especially with a more difficult schedule and a likely drop in turnover luck (+15 in 2022, third nationally).
Illinois Preseason PickUNDER 6.5 (+110 @Caesars Best Price)
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