NL Cy Young Betting: Zack Wheeler (+1700) Should be on Your Radar
Nearly every player award is spoken for in the MLB futures market at this point in the season. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the prohibitive favorite in the NL MVP race. Similarly, Shohei Ohtani is the presumptive winner in the American League. Outstanding campaigns from Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson have all but assured those players of winning Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues. Gerrit Cole has yet to claim a Cy Young award despite years of dominance. That could change this year as the New York Yankees ace is the chalk to claim the AL distinction. But there’s much less certainty surrounding the best pitcher in the National League.
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NL Cy Young
Spencer Strider was the early favorite, giving way to Zac Gallen after the MLB All-Star break. Strider has fallen off his MVP-caliber metrics, posting a 4.67 ERA since the mid-summer classic. Although Gallen remains the betting favorite, he, too, has been less convincing in the latter part of the season. The Arizona Diamondbacks righty went 1-3 in July with a 4.45 ERA. Gallen’s recovered in August. Still, doubts cloud the once-blue skies.
Zack Wheeler
With no one running away, it’s worth perusing the futures board for a true value play. You’ll find Zack Wheeler, an underdog candidate worth more than his +1700 price tag, near the middle of the table.
A Cy Young runner-up in 2021, Wheeler remains a top-tier candidate to claim the award. For years, the hard-throwing righty has been an asset to the Philadelphia Phillies, and his underlying metrics suggest that he’s due for a solid end to the campaign.
Career-Best Strikeout Metrics
Wheeler is replicating his strikeout metrics from the 2019 season. His 10.2 K/9 rate this year is marginally below his career-best mark of 10.4 from a couple of years ago. However, Wheeler’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is better than it’s ever been, and he’s showing signs of improving. The former sixth-overall selection has a wild 49-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio since the start of July, substantially better than the 106-22 benchmark we saw from him over the first three months of the year.
MLB Post-Trade Deadline Losers and Winners
Progression Candidate
One of the most compelling arguments for Wheeler is that he remains a progression candidate. The two-time All-Star’s actual ERA of 3.74 is the expected value of 3.10. Moreover, he’s above his career average of 3.45 while maintaining elite analytics, further validating his success. Fewer baserunners will facilitate that downward trajectory, as Wheeler is allowing a paltry 0.96 walks and hits per inning pitched over the past seven starts.
Recent Efforts
We’re starting to get a sense of just how dominant Wheeler can be. The righty has thrown six consecutive quality starts, compiling a 3.02 ERA across that sample. Turning the lens further back, Wheeler has just one loss since the end of May, going 6-1 along the way.
It is becoming increasingly evident that we are only starting to see how brightly Wheeler can shine.
Top-Tier Value
Recency bias is a significant factor in awards voting; ending the season on a high note would go a long way to improving Wheeler’s chances. Given his current form, progression status, and betting price, this is your chance to get him as a true value pick before Wheeler’s price increases.
