Respecting Rushers? NFL Devaluation’s Affect On Betting Market

Though we’re not (yet) at the point of a revolt, the NFL’s devaluation of the running back position is stirring up plenty of bad feelings.

The value of running backs across the league has shifted dramatically, which was made abundantly clear when the deadline for franchise-tagged players to agree to long-term deals passed in July. In one day, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard each failed to land new contracts from the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys, respectively.

The unwillingness from those franchises to commit to their running backs long-term produced quite the response from other rushers around the league, including those who had already been paid (Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry) and those who hadn’t (Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler).

Things continued to progress with Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts, as the two sides became involved in a very public dispute. Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay said the organization would not trade Taylor, but eventually caved and allowed his representation to find a trade partner.

In short, the entire saga has been incredibly unfortunate for running backs, who can provide tremendous value but not to the point of other high-priced positions (quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, cornerback, pass rusher).

Speaking of providing value…

We decided to take a look at which running backs could provide you with some value on the betting market. It might sound a tad bit insensitive, but someone has to make money off these backs. (Seriously, though, we wish everyone could get paid.)

Here are three bets on running backs you can make in 2023, with all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300)
There’s a reason Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson is the favorite to win NFL OROY, and it has a little bit to do with the fact that he’s expected to do a little bit of everything in Atlanta this season.

The Falcons selected Robinson with the No. 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and view him as a potential game-changer with the ball in his hands. Atlanta rushed a league-high 559 times last season, meaning he’ll certainly get his fair share of touches. There’s also the fact that a rookie quarterback hasn’t won the award in three seasons, with the current crop looking like less-than-ideal options to break the trend.

Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1400)
Have we seen the best of Christian McCaffrey yet?

McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers prior to the trade deadline last season, immediately transforming that offense into the best in football. If you prorate his production with San Francisco over the course of a full season, he would have ended up with around 1,870 total yards and 15 touchdowns. That’s good enough to keep him in the conversation, with a solid season for the 49ers possibly pushing him over the top.

Derrick Henry to lead NFL in rushing TDs (+900)
This one is a bit of a risk, but it’s Derrick Henry we’re talking about.

Henry has led the league in rushing touchdowns twice before, and in a season where his QB situation looks … murky, we like his chances to do it again. The 29-year-old has reached the end zone 68 touchdowns over the last five seasons and came in second place last season.

If there was ever a guy who has shown he can do it, it’s Henry.