The dog days of summer are upon us, and MLB action is the only sport to keep us going. As such, we’re breaking down Saturday’s action, highlighting several picks from the SportsGrid projections. We use a star rating to gauge each play’s success probability. These are some of our favorite selections from today’s MLB Game Picks.
MLB Playoff Bracket if the Postseason Started Today
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves Moneyline (-118): 5-Star Rating
All of a sudden, the Atlanta Braves are embroiled in a closer-than-they-would-like race for top spot in the National League. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made up a lot of ground of late, eating away at the Braves’ once-robust lead. With external pressure mounting, Atlanta has no choice but to take care of business, starting with an NL showdown with the San Francisco Giants on Saturday.
The Giants send Logan Webb to the mound for this inter-divisional battle. Although his superficial stats suggest Webb remains a top arm, his underlying metrics reveal a different story. The soft-throwing righty ranks in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate, 45th percentile in expected batting average, and 52nd percentile in barrel rate. Moreover, he’s operating below his expected ERA, implying Webb is a regression candidate to end the campaign.
Hot-lanta is torching the MLB with its unrelenting offense. The Braves lead the majors with a .500 slugging percentage, contributing to the most runs scored. Further, their 232 home runs are 40 more than the next closest squad.
The current betting price severely underestimates the Braves’ chances of winning tonight. According to the SportsGrid betting algorithm, Atlanta has a 74.0% chance of winning; however, the -118 betting price carries a 54.1% implied probability. That leaves a nearly 20.0% edge in backing the home side.
Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies Moneyline (+104): 5-Star Rating
Home sweet home. The Colorado Rockies continue to thrive in their hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. That benefits their cause in Saturday’s inter-league battle against the Chicago White Sox. The betting market may be low on Colorado’s chances, but that only amplifies our betting edge.
Cumulatively, the Rockies rank 21st in OPS this season, but they make a big jump up the table when isolating home stats. At Coors Field, the Rox jump to sixth in the bigs with a .776 mark. Predictably, that’s had a profound impact on scoring. Colorado averages 5.1 runs per game at home, compared to just 3.7 as the visitors.
With Jesse Scholtens toeing the rubber for the White Sox, we’re anticipating another top-tier performance from the Rockies. Scholtens pitches to contact, inducing a minuscule 17.5% strikeout percentage and just a 21.0% swing-and-miss rate. Worse, the righty gets hit hard, giving up a below-average .403 expected slugging percentage.
The Rockies can’t miss at Coors, and with Scholtens unable to miss bats, Colorado should thrive again in this one. Plus money isn’t worth passing up on these undeserving home underdogs.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Over 10 (-106): 5-Star Rating
Lately, runs have been hard to come by for the Toronto Blue Jays. The Canadian squad has been limited to six runs over their past three outings, despite featuring a bevy of top-end hitters. Vladimir Guerrer Jr. and company will have a chance to break out of their mini-slump as they take on the combustible Brandon Williamson and the Cincinnati Reds.
Although consistency has held them back, Toronto’s lineup is littered with top-end hitters. The Jays feature eight different batters with at least 11 long fly balls. Further, all but one of those players has totaled 44 or more RBI. Brandon Belt is the lone standout, and his run production value is diminished due to extended injury-related absences. Nevertheless, every batter in the Blue Jays lineup will thrive with Williamson serving up meatballs.
The Reds’ southpaw has been a disaster this year. Williamson tops out with a forgettable 31st percentile ranking in barrel percentage. From there, his expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and expected ERA all put him in the 18th percentile or lower.
Chris Bassitt isn’t immune from runs, either. The Jays’ probable starter has given up nine earned runs across his last 19.0 innings pitched for a 4.25 ERA. Consequently, runs should be plentiful in this afternoon matinee as the Reds and Blue Jays soar over the total.
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