Wisconsin Badgers Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick
The Wisconsin Badgers nearly had their bowl streak snapped (21 straight) in Paul Chryst’s final season in Madison, one trending in the wrong direction enough that the powers that be decided a change was needed. Enter Luke Fickell, no stranger to the Big Ten, from Cincinnati, just one year removed from leading the Bearcats to the College Football Playoff. It’s Year 1 of the Fickell era, but expectations are high, with the Badgers favored to win the Big Ten West in the final season with divisions.Wisconsin Badgers Preview
2022 Record: 7-6 (4-5); Big Ten Finish: 5th in B1G West
A.P. Poll: No. 19 | Coaches Poll: No. 21 | SP+: No. 19
Head Coach: Luke Fickell: 0-0 (0-0) | 1st Season | Overall: 63-25
Offensive Coordinator: Phil Longo (1st Season)
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Tressel (1st Season)
Wisconsin Badgers Futures Odds (FanDuel)National Championship Odds: +7000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +1200
B1G Championship Odds: +800 | B1G West Odds: +140
Win 10+ Games: +145 | Undefeated Regular Season: +1500
Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -144 | UNDER 8.5 +118
Big Ten Previews: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers |
Wisconsin Preview: Why You Should Be BullishThe cupboard is far from bare. Braelon Allen is an All-American caliber runner who forms a one-two punch with Chez Mellusi, which would be considered the best in many conferences. Senior wideout Chimere Dike has WR1 talent, and four starters are back on the offensive line. The D-line features four key returnees (combined for 1,225 snaps last season per PFF). Three starters are back at linebacker, with playmakers Maema Njongmeta and Jordan Turner forming one of the best inside duos in the nation. In the secondary, two corners have starting experience from last season, while three safeties are considered starting caliber. Fickell isn’t stepping into a rebuild.
Wisconsin Preview: Why You Should Be BearishWisconsin’s returning players will be asked to do different things than they were recruited for and might not necessarily play to their strengths. No unit is more affected than an offensive line that is used to milking the play clock, who will now have to snap the ball quickly in Phil Longo’s up-tempo Air Raid attack. It’s just about pace either, as they will go from a physical run-focused offense to a more balanced attack, with different blocking techniques, including wider splits, which could get tricky, especially in pass protection. Defensively, the Badgers are switching from a 3-4 scheme that would feature a pair of edge rushers at OLB to a predominantly 3-3-5 alignment. DC Mike Tressel wants to “mesh†what the Badgers did well with his system, which is easier said than done.
Breakout Playe: S/LB Hunter Wohler, JuniorA four-star recruit, Hunter Wohler was one of Wisconsin’s top prospects in the Class of 2021, and he earned a starting job last season before he injured his ankle in the opener. He finished with 21 tackles after posting 17 as a true freshman with a more significant role waiting for him in 2023. What makes him a valuable piece is his versatility. Wohler will start at safety in Tressel’s traditional 3-3-5 defense, and when they go to their “dollar†formation, which features a third safety replacing the OLB, he will move up to play inside the box. The combination of coverage skills and physicality will allow Wohler to make plays all over the field.
Wisconsin X-Factor: The Passing Game TransfersWhile Fickell inherited talent, they still needed to hit the portal hard to bring in pieces that fit what the new staff wanted on offense. The previous regime didn’t recruit the personnel to run the Air Raid. That includes three new quarterbacks, with former Oklahoma and SMU triggerman Tanner Mordecai. No stranger to slinging the football, Mordecai attempted nearly 900 passes for 7,000-plus yards and 72 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Adding four receivers through the portal should allow them to go six or seven deep. Bryson Green put up solid numbers (36-584-5 TDs) at Oklahoma State, where he was a big-play threat. Then there are sophomores Will Pauling (Cincinnati) and CJ Williams (USC), who have both moved ahead of more experienced and proven pass catchers on the depth chart to run with the first team. Pauling had an electric spring making plays out of the slot, while Williams is a former top-100 prospect coming out of Mater Dei.
Wisconsin Schedule AnalysisIn Week 2, the Badgers visit Washington State (O/U 6.5), a potential slip-up against a Cougars team that pulled off the upset in Camp Randell last season. In conference play, Wisconsin gets Ohio State (a week after OSU plays PSU) from the East but also Rutgers and Indiana, so it could be worse. Five of their conference games will be at home, and all the road games will be very winnable. It’s possible, Wisky could end up being favored in every game but the Buckeyes. Getting Iowa, their biggest threat in the West, at home is enormous.
Wisconsin Prediction: OVER/UNDER 8.5 WinsThe Badgers are the most talented team in the West Division and will be able to name their score against Buffalo, Georgia Southern, Rutgers, Indiana, and Northwestern. A home loss to Nebraska would surprise me, while their three toughest B1G road games come against Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota, who are all supposed to take a step back this season after beating the Badgers in 2021 (revenge tour?). Unless things go very wrong, Wisconsin will win nine or ten games with an outside chance at 11. If you can’t tell already, I’m on the over. Lay the juice.
Wisconsin Preseason PickOVER 8.5 (-144)
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