NFL Week 4 is upon us, and I have some locks ready for you. After a profitable Week 3 on our spread and parlay bets, here are five spreads we’re eyeing up with an additional teaser for good measure.
Let’s have ourselves a weekend!
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns are the best NFL team you aren’t thinking about. Their defense is unbelievable, led by Myles Garrett, as opposing offenses haven’t scored a touchdown against them this season yet. Offensively, there is still work to get Deshaun Watson back to the player he just was. In Week 3, he played the best he has as a Brown, throwing for 289 yards and two touchdown passes with an 82% completion rate. While I believe the Baltimore Ravens will be hungry after losing to the Indianapolis Colts last week in overtime, I think Cleveland is just that good. With a statement win this weekend, people will start coming around to how good they actually are.
There are worries about Watson’s shoulder injury, but if he’s going to be under center, we’ll be on the Browns.
Pick: Browns ML
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Sunday will be JJ Watt Appreciation Day in Houston, but the best defensive player in football, who happens to be his brother, will be on the other sideline. Talk about wanting to make your mark. The concerns about the Pittsburgh Steelers offense are valid. Still, Kenny Pickett is coming off the first multi-touchdown game of his career, and offensive coordinator Matt Canada is coaching for his job. The Houston Texans are coming off a shocking road win in dominating fashion over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let’s try not to overreact. The Texans were outscored 56-29 in the season’s first two weeks. CJ Stroud might have looked excellent last week, but TJ Watt will be barrelling down on him repeatedly. I don’t think the rookie quarterback will be able to hold up. Take the Steelers.
Pick: Steelers -3
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts
Look at any betting metric, and you’ll see that everyone and their mother is on the Los Angeles Rams over the Indianapolis Colts this week. I don’t see it. The Rams just played in Cincinnati on Monday night and then chose to fly home to Los Angeles instead of finding somewhere in the Midwest to set up shop on the short week. Now, they have to fly back to Indianapolis on Sunday, where it will feel like 10:00 a.m. What a horrible spot. On the field, the Colts are better than people realize. Zack Moss has been one of the most potent running backs, complementing their passing attack. Most notably, their defensive front has been a game-changer through three weeks, forcing 12 sacks. I don’t trust the Rams enough in this spot to favor them. Fade the public and back Indy.
Pick: Colts -1.5
- Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
I get it; the Miami Dolphins are the darling of the NFL. Their offense has been on another level, and Tua Tagovailoa has become the MVP frontrunner. Still, the Buffalo Bills are a pretty good football team. At home, how could we not lay the -2.5 with Bills Mafia? Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are built to go head-to-head with Tua and Tyreek Hill, and it will be challenging mentally for the Dolphins to follow up their 70-point outing. Buffalo’s defense is much better than Miami’s, whether against the run, defending the pass, or generating takeaways. Plus, they are rolling right now. Over the last two weeks, the Bills have outscored their opponents 75-13. I’m all in on Buffalo this week, making this a two-unit whale play.
Pick: Bills -2.5
- Teaser of the Week: Eagles -2.5, Chiefs -2.5
Jalen Hurts hasn’t necessarily looked like an MVP frontrunner, but all he does is win football games. Over his last 21 regular season games, he’s gone 20-1. Defensively, the Philadelphia Eagles are better than the Bills, and Buffalo just put Sam Howell in prison last week. I expect another rough outing for the Washington Commanders, so I’ll tease the Eagles to win by a field goal.
When building these six-point teasers, it is essential to go through the three-point threshold, and the Kansas City Chiefs are sitting at -9.5, so I recommend finding an alternate spread of -2.5, making their leg a seven-point tease. As a result, I’m making this a two-unit play to deal with the added juice we’re laying. Listen, the New York Jets stink. Zach Wilson can’t play quarterback, and we already saw how their supposedly elite defense held up against the Dallas Cowboys’ loaded offense. Coming off a commanding 41-10 win, the Chiefs will win this game by at least a field goal.
If you’re looking for an added play to avoid laying -150 on this teaser, you might as well add Travis Kelce to find the endzone to turn this into an entertaining +165 parlay. Over the last two weeks, the Jets’ defense has allowed three tight ends to find the endzone, so Kelce will be ripe for an endzone trot tonight. Plus, Taylor Swift will be in the stands cheering him on for crying out loud.
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