We went 3-1 on our totals picks in Week 3, so we’re looking to carry over that momentum with these five plays in Week 4.
Let’s ride.
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
In a battle of 0-3 teams fighting for their first win on the season, I think we can expect some points on Sunday. Even though Kirk Cousins is not a winner, he is a stat-padder. The Minnesota Vikings have averaged 23 points per game this season and face a Carolina Panthers defense that’s allowed 81 points over the past three weeks. The Panthers had their best offensive performance of the season with Andy Dalton under center last week, so from a points standpoint, it is discouraging to hear Bryce Young will return on Sunday. Still, if there were an opponent for Young to figure it out against, it would be the Vikings’ defense, which is garbage, allowing an average of 27 points per game this season. Back the over.
Pick: Over 46.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
We just saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense crumble against good competition, only scoring 11 points against the Philadelphia Eagles’ stout defense. Well, the New Orleans Saints boast a pretty darn good defense themselves. Through the first 11 quarters of their season, the Saints only allowed a single touchdown, and while they collapsed in the fourth quarter of Week 3, I will bank on them bouncing back against Baker Mayfield. The Saints offense only averages 18 points per game, and Jameis Winston will likely start. The past four matchups between these two clubs have only averaged roughly 33 points. Take the under.
Pick: Under 39.5
- Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears
Only true sickos will be betting on this game, so I’ll keep this one short. Regardless of the Denver Broncos’ defense allowing 70 points last week and the Chicago Bears’ defense giving up 41, I will never bet on Justin Fields and Russell Wilson combining for 46. Take the under and forget you ever bet on this game.
Pick: Under 46
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m high on the Cleveland Browns, maybe too high, but I believe in what they’re doing. I want to take the over in this game, but Cleveland’s defense is too elite for me to do that, so I’m targeting the Browns’ individual team total. Sitting at 21.5, the Browns have had at least 24 points in all three games this season, and Deshaun Watson is coming off his best game as a Brown. Looking at the Baltimore Ravens’ defense, they let Joe Burrow, who can’t throw the ball downfield, score 24 points, and Gardner Minshew balled out enough for the Colts to rack up 22 points. With this line being 21.5, I’m on the over big time.
There are worries about Watson’s shoulder injury, but if he’s going to be under center, I’m still taking them to exceed their point total.
Pick: Browns Team Total Over 20.5
- Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Coming into the season, I had no expectations for the Arizona Cardinals, but I’ll admit, they’ve proved me wrong. This team still lacks talent, but they play hard and are well-coached. They’ll face the big bad San Francisco 49ers defense this week, but the brand of football Arizona plays shows me they aren’t afraid of anyone and relish the underdog mentality. They just put 28 on the Dallas Cowboys defense many we’re lauding as the best in football. Their team total sits at 14.5, so I wish we were getting this at 13.5, but I’m still on it. The Cardinals have averaged 24 points per game through three games, and I look for them to try and utilize their speed on the outside with Hollywood Brown to attack the 49ers’ pretty average corners.
Pick: Cardinals Team Total Over 14.5
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