The Big Ten season kicked off last night with a vintage Big Ten West win, 13-10, by the Minnesota Golden Gophers over the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who again found a way to lose a close one. We get ten more B1G games over three days as Week 1 of the college football season runs through Monday.
For those new to the B1G Bets column, I make my picks against the spread: tiered B1G Bets, B1GGER Bets, and B1GGEST Bets.
Last Season’s Record: 47-30-1 overall (+15 units) | ATS: 26-17-1 | Team Totals: 21-13
Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
B1GGER Bets (1 Unit):Toledo +9.5 ILLINOIS
Money Line: Illinois -335 | Toledo +265 | Total: 45.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET; TV: BTN | Location: Memorial Stadium | Champaign, IL
Illinois: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 43 | PFF: 23
Toledo: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 71 | PFF: 67
I loved the Bret Bielema hire and believe in what he’s building in Champaign. However, more than usual, Illinois lost a lot of talent to the NFL, and Bielema hasn’t had time to build up the program.
They must replace star running back Chase Brown, starting QB Tommy DeVito, and three secondary pieces who went in the first two days of the NFL Draft, among others. Luke Altmyer (Miss State transfer) takes over under center and is unproven (54 career passes, 3 TDs, 3 INTs). Not only will the Illini feature four new starters in the secondary (they play five), but starting safety Matthew Bailey is out for Saturday’s contest.
Their opponent, Toledo, should have a continuity edge in Week 1. In the transfer portal era, the defending MAC Champs found a way to retain 16 starters from last year’s team, including dual-threat QB Dequan Finn and Third Team AP All-American cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, among seven All-MAC returnees. The offensive line is experienced, and there are playmakers.
Finn is a dynamic runner, and while a bit inconsistent as a passer, he’s an effective deep ball thrower, so that new-look Illini secondary will be tested. As will Altmyer, who faces a Rockets defense ranked third in passing success rate last season.
Toledo’s problem was similar to the Illini’s—winning the close games—but other than a loss at Ohio State, the Rockets haven’t been beaten by more than a TD in nearly two years. They should keep this one close. Two teams that like to run the ball with the new clock rules doesn’t hurt.
B1G Bets (1 Unit):
Northwestern +6.5 RUTGERS
Money Line: Rutgers -245 | Northwestern +198 | Total: 39.5
Time: noon ET (Sunday); TV: CBS | Location: High Point Solutions Stadium | Piscataway, NJ
Rutgers: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 77 | PFF: 78
Northwestern: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 85 | PFF: 105
Neither team is very good. Maybe I’m crazy, and Northwestern is an absolute dumpster fire. But I feel they’re tired of being bad-mouthed over the summer and will show some pride, especially early in the season. As much as any team taking the field this weekend, the ‘Cats must feel like they have something to prove and are thrilled to finally play a game.
More importantly, they have the more proven, possibly the only competent, quarterback suiting up on Sunday. Ben Bryant has two years of starting experience, including last season at Cincinnati, where he threw 21 touchdown passes to seven interceptions while completing 61.2 percent of his passes (7.9 YPP). Numbers better than Clayton Thorson or Peyton Ramsey when they led the Wildcats to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Do I think Bryant will lead Northwestern to their third trip to Indy in six years? Heck no. But he gives them a chance, something their QBs haven’t over the past two miserable seasons. The ‘Cats committed 31 turnovers last year as they finished an FBS worst -19 in turnover margin. If Bryant can protect the football, why can’t they hang with Rutgers?
The Scarlet Knights probably have the worst QB situation in the Big Ten (Gavin Wimsatt: 44.8%, 5 TDs, 7 INTs, 5.7 YPA), and their three wins against FBS foes in 2022 came by a combined ten points.
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