NFL Picks: Jameis Winston Time? Best-Bet Parlay Backs Saints Vs. Bucs
On second thought, New Orleans' defense invokes more confidence than Winston
There were a handful of notable upsets in Week 3 with the Dallas Cowboys losing straight up as a 12.5-point favorite against the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens dropping one to the Indianapolis Colts as an 8-point favorite.
Unfortunately, we felt quite similar to those fanbases given we missed out on our three-leg parlay by a single point after the Kansas City Chiefs' 41-10 win against the Chicago Bears (Under 50).
Entering Week 4, only three teams are favored by more than a touchdown with five home underdogs on the slate.
Here are our picks for our Week 4 best-bet parlay. All lines are courtesy of the consensus data listed on NESNBets.com live odds page.
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Atlanta Falcons Under 20.5 points at Jacksonville Jaguars (-112)
For all the highlights that Bijan Robinson already has produced on social media, quarterback Desmond Ridder has struggled to lead the offense. The Falcons rank 29th in passing yards and 27th in passing attempts through three weeks. And Atlanta is coming off a Week 3 loss to the Detroit Lions in which they scored six points after rushing for just 44 yards on 20 carries. The Jaguars' defense ranks sixth in yards allowed per rushing attempt, and will head to Webley Stadium in England motivated after a Week 3 loss to the Houston Texans.
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(-3) New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110)
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are coming off a Week 3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in which they finished with 174 total yards. The Saints' defense actually ranks higher than the Eagles in DVOA. New Orleans has a defensive front that can get to Mayfield without blitzing, which has been a recipe for disaster for the quarterback. The Saints rank eighth in yards allowed and third in passing touchdowns allowed. New Orleans also has held all three of its 2023 opponents to fewer the 19 points and now has 11 straight games holding an opponent to fewer than 21 points.
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San Francisco 49ers moneyline vs. Arizona Cardinals (-1150)
Count on Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers to bring the Cardinals back to reality after Arizona's Week 3 win against Dallas. This moneyline wager causes the parlay to jump from three legs (+589) to four legs (+649), and it feels like as sure of a thing as we get in the NFL.
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Seattle Seahawks (-1) at New York Giants
The Seahawks' defense has not been as good as some expected entering the season. However, Geno Smith and the offense are rolling with 37 points scored in each of their last two games against the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers. Seattle ranks fourth in points scored this season. On the other hand, the Giants have looked like one of the worst teams in the league through three weeks, and NFL Media's Ian Rapoport noted it would be a stretch for running back Saquon Barkley to return in Week 4.
Payout: 1 unit to win 6.49
To date: 7-4 (Down 3 units)
