The dog days of summer are upon us, and MLB action is the only sport to keep us going. As such, we’re breaking down Saturday’s action, highlighting several picks from the SportsGrid projections. We use a star rating to gauge each play’s success probability. These are some of our favorite selections from today’s MLB Game Picks.
AL East Odds Update: Orioles Add To Lead Over Rays
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Royals Moneyline (+260): 5-Star Rating
For the first time in weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays are sitting comfortably in a wild card spot. Toronto enters Saturday with a 1.5-game lead over the Texas Rangers. Unfortunately, they will need some help to maintain that gap, as our projections reveal an edge in backing the Kansas City Royals in this inter-divisional battle.
The Jays send Kevin Gausman to the mound in what could end as another shellacking. Gausman has been tagged for at least three earned runs in three of his past four outings, failing to last pitch out of the fifth inning in any of those starts. Across that sample, the two-time All-Star has a 5.75 ERA while giving up 1.67 walks and hits per inning pitched.
That plays into the recent surge we’ve seen from the Royals. As a team, KC has put together the eighth-best OPS over the past week, churning out a .840 rating. Predictably, that correlates with an increase in scoring, with the Royals averaging 6.0 runs per game over that stretch.
Kansas City gave the Blue Jays all they could handle on Friday night. We’re anticipating a similar effort on Saturday, albeit with a different outcome. Backing the Royals as steep +260 underdogs is rated as a five-star play.
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers Moneyline (-255): 5-Star Rating
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they won’t get the help they need from the Oakland Athletics. The Rangers are looking to bounce back from a tough loss on Friday night, playing the second of three games against the A’s. According to our projections, there’s a substantive edge in backing Texas in this AL West showdown.
Oakland trots Kyle Muller out to the mound in what’s sure to be another eventful outing. Analytically, Muller ranks as one of the worst pitchers in the bigs. The soft-throwing lefty sits in the first percentile in expected ERA, batting average, and hard-hit rate, benefitting the Rangers’ cause.
Texas has been one of the best-hitting teams against southpaws this season. Their OPS improves to .812 versus lefties, thanks in part to their MLB-leading 89 doubles. Those advantages are more pronounced at Globe Life Field, where the Rangers have compiled the most runs in the bigs.
Every factor points toward a successful showing from the Rangers. Even though the betting price reflects the Rangers’ advantages, there’s still an edge in backing the home team in this one.
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Astros Moneyline (-134): 5-Star Rating
The Houston Astros are in the driver’s seat in the AL West. They can further their own cause with a big win in this inter-league showdown against the San Diego Padres. Cristian Javier is the probable starter, poised to build off his most recent effort.
After a ho-hum August, Javier tossed a quality start against the New York Yankees last time out. Most impressively, the 26-year-old allowed a paltry four hits while striking out eight. Still, Javier took the tough-luck loss, as the Astros couldn’t get anything going offensively.
Thankfully, Houston has corrected their metrics since then. The Astros have scored 12 or more in three of their four games since then, resulting in an unholy 1.042 OPS this week. Their .644 slugging percentage is almost 100 points higher than the next closest team, highlighting their batting skills from top to bottom.
Seth Lugo has been great, but he doesn’t possess the arsenal to limit the Astros. That’s resulting in a shorter price on the Astros, but it’s not worth passing up. Houston cruises.
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