Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, we’re seeing the field of contenders take shape. In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are near the top, with the Miami Dolphins looking ready to give anyone they face a run for their money. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are the top dogs, with the once-hyped Dallas Cowboys now on the outside looking in.
Still, as we think of potential sleeper teams, these four teams are worth considering making a run at the Lombardi Trophy.
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- Detroit Lions (+1800)
The 49ers and Eagles are the best two teams in the conference, and I don’t think anyone is out there debating that. However, looking at that third team, it’s between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions, and I don’t know how anyone can favor the Cowboys over the Lions. Detroit is pretty darn good. Jared Goff is flourishing in this scheme, the run game is dominant, led by David Montgomery and behind elite offensive line play, and the defense has been coming along with Aidan Hutchinson taking charge. No matter how good San Francisco or Philadelphia may be, getting +1800 odds on the third-best team in any conference is value too good to pass on. I can see Detroit giving San Fran and Philly a fight in a potential Divisional Round matchup.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+2300)
The Jacksonville Jaguars got their swagger back in London and now appear in the driver’s seat for the AFC South title. With a home playoff game coming their way, at +2300 odds, I’ll always trust a coach who has already defied the odds to win it all, as Doug Pederson has. He knows what it takes to win. Trevor Lawrence is becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the conference with a talented group of weapons surrounding him, and the defense has an underrated group of playmakers. If the Jags win the home playoff game like they’re supposed to, getting +2300 in the final four of a conference is substantial value.
- Cleveland Browns (+2700)
This may sound crazy, but the Cleveland Browns can be one of the most dangerous teams come playoff time if they get in. Let’s look at the first three weeks of their season, where they had the best defense in all of football and Deshaun Watson improving every week. Week 4 was a disaster as Watson did not play due to injury, but after a Week 5 bye, this team could be rejuvenated. If we continue to get the same Watson we saw in Week 3, and this defense continues to ball out, then I guarantee that no one will want to play them come playoff time.
- Cincinnati Bengals (+3200)
I never want to overvalue a single win, but I trust that the Cincinnati Bengals are good after dominating the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. Joe Burrow looked the healthiest he has been this season and showed the most command in the pocket yet. The Bengals couldn’t have asked for a Week 5 outing to regain confidence. Still, sitting at 2-3, an uphill battle awaits, but the Bengals also were 2-3 in 2022 and made it to the AFC Championship game. At his best, Burrow is one of the best players in football, and that’s precisely what he was this past Sunday. If we get that play from now on, as I expect, +3200 to win the Super Bowl is the best number we’ll ever get for a preseason Super Bowl frontrunner.
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