5 Teams You Need to Back Against the Spread in Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and despite us going 2-3 on our picks in Week 4, we’re profiting as we hit both of our two-unit plays. We’re back for more in Week 5 with these four plays against the spread and a mini moneyline parlay.

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Everyone just saw the Buffalo Bills utterly dominate the Miami Dolphins in Week 4, as the whole world was buying into the Dolphins being Super Bowl contenders. This is a prime letdown spot for the Bills coming off an emotional win. Now, they travel across the pond to London to face the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are playing their second consecutive game in Europe, giving them a significant travel advantage. The Jaguars dominated a respectable Atlanta Falcons team last week, so given the public consensus being all over the Bills, I envision the Jaguars coming in under the radar and giving the Bills a dogfight to the point where I’d sprinkle some money on the moneyline. At a minimum, hammer the 5.5 spread.

Pick: Jaguars +5.5

I’m not a believer in the Tennessee Titans whatsoever. Their two wins came against a Los Angeles Chargers team that gifted the Titans the game due to Brandon Staley’s incompetence and against a Cincinnati Bengals squad that’s been a laughingstock this season. Now, they face the Indianapolis Colts team that’s incredibly well-coached and getting Jonathan Taylor back. The Colts play everyone tough. In the opener, they went toe to toe with the Jaguars, then nearly pulled off the comeback victory over the Rams last week. At home, against the Titans, I do not trust them; I’ll gladly back the Colts on the spread and moneyline.

Pick: Colts +2.5

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Listen, I know the Houston Texans have been a fun team these past two weeks by taking down the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers on the back of CJ Stroud becoming the frontrunner to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year, but I don’t see it this week. On the road as only a 1.5-point underdog, the line implies that the Texans are a better football team than the Atlanta Falcons, but they are not. After two straight losses on the road, including a trip to London, the Falcons will significantly benefit from returning home, where they’ll lean on their dynamic running game and pass defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game in the league.

Pick: Falcons -1.5

This is my last ditch effort in trying to believe that the Cincinnati Bengals can turn this around, and I’m confident the Bengals deep down know it. Last week must have been rock-bottom for this team after the Tennessee Titans utterly embarrassed them, so they can only go up. Joe Burrow delivered a powerful message to the Bengals’ locker room following their embarrassing performance, according to Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow has stated that this is a must-win for his team all week. Plus, in media sessions this week, Burrow spoke about this being the best he’s felt all season. I’m confident we’ll see the best version of Burrow on Sunday. I don’t want to dismiss the Cardinals, given that they’ve played extremely hard and well above expectations through four games, but if the Bengals were playing like we’ve become accustomed to, this line would approach two touchdowns. I’m willing to bank on the Bengals as only a field goal favorite when Burrow should be leaving his soul on the football field in a last-ditch effort. Maybe I’m delusional, but I’m so confident in the Bengals, making this a two-unit whale play.

Pick: Bengals -3

We’ve been doing well with our moneyline parlays this season, so we’ll carry them on to Week 5 with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, the two teams we hammered last week in a six-point teaser.

For Philly, they face a Los Angeles Rams team that they’re just better than. Last week, the Eagles showed no urgency against a Washington Commanders team that was embarrassed by the Chicago Bears last night. Knowing how the Eagles operate, they’ll take it to heart. Plus, they know that with a win, they’d be in great shape as one of the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys will lose this week, putting them in the driver for the No. 1 seed in the NFC or the NFC East crown. I see a commanding Eagles win.

Something about this Chiefs game is wonky. They’ll square off against the Minnesota Vikings, and the line has now come down to -3.5 in favor of the Chiefs from a six-point opening line. Maybe reports are that Taylor Swift won’t be in attendance, but I cannot take Kirk Cousins outdueling Patrick Mahomes in what should be a high-scoring affair. Plus, Mahomes will pick apart the Vikings’ atrocious secondary.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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