As Patriots’ Win Total Dips, Is There Any Reason To Be Confident?
New England's adjusted win total is now at 5.5
The Patriots currently are on a historic run, and it's not a good one.
New England's 10 consecutive quarters without a touchdown led to two embarrassing losses. The latest 34-0 beatdown against the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 was the largest home shutout in franchise history. And Week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys, a 38-3 verdict, was Bill Belichick's worst loss of his career.
Bookmakers have taken notice and moved New England's win total down to 5.5.
Heading into Week 6, how much faith should Patriots fans have? Is there any value in buying the dip on Belichick and company?
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I talked with former NFL executive Michael Lombardi, who says improvement comes down to cleaning it up and trying to get ahead early.
"Until the Pats stop turning the ball over, falling behind, being outscored in the first quarter," Lombardi said, "they will struggle to win games against any team."
It's not just coaching or player performance specifically that is to blame, according to Lombardi.
"It's all of the above, not one thing."
However, Lombardi said he is always confident in Belichick when it comes to bouncing back.
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Taking a look at the first five weeks, CLNS Patriots beat reporter Taylor Kyles echoed one key issue: "Mac Jones desperately needs to stop turning the ball over."
The Patriots have been outscored 72-3 in two weeks. Even more importantly, they have been outscored 45-0 off turnovers, which is the worst margin in the NFL.
Unfortunately for Jones it's not fully in his control.
"I don't think the offense can start turning things around until they find stability upfront. We don't know when that will be," Kyles said, referencing how Cole Strange missed the last two games with a knee injury and Mike Onwenu still hindered by an ankle injury after offseason surgery.
Kyles says that means one thing for the offense.
"Without a front that can run the ball or give their pocket passer enough time to find a groove, this is a directionless offense."
The Pats currently rank fifth worst in total offensive DVOA. That mark is only better than the Jets, Panthers, Raiders and Giants.
With one win so far, the Patriots need five more to cash the over on their adjusted win total. Their most winnable games remaining include the Raiders, Commanders, Colts, Broncos and Jets.
If I were a gambling woman -- which I am -- I'd bet they lose at least one of those. With all the respect in the world for Belichick, this year feels different. I took the under on the 7.5 wins before the season started and, while it's not great to chase the number, I'd still bet the under now.
