We returned to our winning ways in Week 5 (3-2) and did even better with our units (+2). That doesn’t include a Penn State second-half bet, which covered by more than two TDs, so give your boy a follow on X if you don’t want to miss out on potential in-game action.
PSU -13.5 second half#GamblingTwitter #GamblingX #CFBPicks
— Daniel Mogollon (@DanTheB1GMan) September 30, 2023
Our 63 percent clip is better than you could expect for September until you look at our B1GGEST/B1GGER Bets (87 percent).
There’s no Penn State, Michigan State, or Indiana this week. The entire B1G West is in action, including Northwestern hosting FCS Howard. That equals five games on the board, starting with Nebraska at Illinois (lean Cornhuskers +3.5) on Friday night.
Record: 17-10 overall (+9.5 units) | ATS: 9-5 | Team Totals: 7-5 | Game Totals: 1-0
Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
B1GGEST Bets (1.5 Units):Last Week: 0-0; Season: 2-1 (+1.5 Units)
More B1G: B1G Power Rankings | How to Watch Week 6 | OSU’s Defensive Concerns | Nebraska Message Board Meltdown
IOWA -1.5 Purdue (FanDuel)Money Line: Iowa -134 | Purdue +112 | Total: 39.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: Peacock | Location: Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, IA
Iowa: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR (32) | SP+: 38 | PFF: 27
Purdue: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 68 | PFF: 53
This line doesn’t make sense to me. Does Vegas have Purdue power rated higher than Iowa? The spread indicates just that, and if so, Vegas is wrong.
I’m unsure how much to downgrade the Hawkeyes with QB Cade McNamara out of the season (if at all). It shouldn’t be much: 1) McNamara didn’t look healthy before Saturday’s injury, 2) he hadn’t been playing well (QBR is last among B1G QBs, 122nd nationally), and 3) Iowa hasn’t won four games because of their passing offense.
They didn’t lose the 2021 Big Ten-winning McNamara. They lost the 2023 immobile/ineffective McNamara.
It’s too early to say Deacon Hill is an upgrade, but he’s practiced more with the first-team offense (due to McNamara’s nagging preseason injury) than most backup quarterbacks. His ability to play action better and QB sneak further opens up the playbook for Mr. Drive to 325.
The kid has a powerful arm and BDE (Big DEAC Energy) – plus, Iowa tried to use their receivers against Michigan State. Two positives going into the Purdue game. They will have to catch the football (at least five of six drops last week were by WRs) to take advantage of a vulnerable backend for tor the Boilermakers.
They are getting healthier in the backfield as RB1 Kaleb Johnson (200 rushing yards at Purdue last season) is scheduled to return and is ready to contribute. Fellow RB Leshon Williams said, “He looks like Kaleb.†Williams (5.7 YPC) and the speedy Johnson complement each other well.
We’re not going to sugarcoat Iowa’s offense. It isn’t good. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be good enough to win, especially against a bad Purdue defense that allows 29.6 PPG (100th nationally).
The Boilermakers are 118th in third/fourth down success rate, 95th in net points/drive allowed, 94th in field position, 87th in early down success rate, 81st in defensive success rate (95th vs. the rush), and 73rd EPA/pass.
Factoring in a monster edge in special teams (SP+ third vs. 93rd), backed up by the discrepancy in net field position (sixth vs. 79th) and Purdue’s 131st ranking in kick returns and kickoff coverage.
I wouldn’t rule out a defensive score by Iowa, either. Purdue has committed eight turnovers (83rd) against what is typically an opportunistic zone defense (five INTs). Beware of tipped passes.
Finally, the Boilermakers are coming off their most impressive game (44-19 win over Illinois), feeling good about themselves as Ryan Walters picked up his first B1G win against his former team. They aren’t playing that well this week.
More CFB: Bama QB vs A&M Uncertain | Red River Preview | Can Georgia Finally Cover? | Notre Dame’s Trap Game
Purdue UNDER 18.5 (FanDuel)You knew there was no way I was laying points with Iowa and not backing their defense. Purdue’s offense is solid but not very efficient.
They’re just 91st on early down EPA, 85th in first down percentage on early downs, 79th in third/fourth down success rate, 77th in rushing success rate, and 51st in passing success rate.
The Hawkeyes’ defense is top-notch. Very strong on early downs (22nd in success rate, 28th in FD%), 33rd in success rate, and especially tough to pass on (16th passing success rate, 32nd EPA/pass), which is Purdue’s bread and butter.
Unless the offense turns it over (a fumble return for TD was why we lost UNDER on MSU last week), Iowa makes you earn every yard. They’ve allowed the fewest plays of 20+ yards (six) and 30+ yards (three). At 4.29, Parker’s defense is eighth in yards per play allowed.
The Hawkeyes are physical up front, have sound-tackling linebackers in Jay Higgins (62 tackles!) and Nick Jackson (4.5 TFLs, 43 tackles), and one of the nation’s best secondaries led by All-American candidate Cooper DeJean.
Factor in the punting of Tory Taylor and Iowa’s significant field position edge; how will Purdue score needing long drives? They won’t—at least not more than 18.5. Penn State is the only team to score more than 16 points against Iowa this season, and they’ve held 15 of their last 16 opponents not named Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State to 17 points or less.
B1GGER Bets (1 Units):Last Week: 3-0; Season: 11-1 (+10 Units)
Michigan -18.5 MINNESOTA (DraftKings)Money Line: Michigan -1250 | Minnesota +740 | Total: 45.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET; TV: NBC | Location: Huntington Bank Stadium | Minneapolis, MN
Michigan: AP Top 25: 2 | Coaches Poll: 2 | SP+: 1 | PFF: 3
Minnesota: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 46 | PFF: 31
The battle for the Little Brown Jug!
Despite loving Michigan to win the Big Ten for a third-straight year, we laid off the Wolverines for the first four weeks of the season before pouncing last week. We’re on them again.
Michigan’s offense is elite. Their O-line is getting better each week, running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards (due for a breakout game) are looking more comfortable with each carry, and JJ McCarthy is playing at an extremely high level, running and throwing. His QBR (94.2) is tops nationally (yes, better than Michael Penix Jr.) and weighted QBR second only to Caleb Williams.
McCarthy leads a passing offense ranked ninth in offensive success rate and EPA/pass. The Wolverines are fourth in third/fourth down success rate, while Minnesota’s defense is 120th. How are they getting JJ and the boys off the field?
The Gophers have taken a monster step back defensively in 2023, ranked 82nd in EPA/rush and 94th in pass success rate (90th in total defensive success rate).
Michigan is third in net points per drive, while Minnesota is 78th.
Things could get ugly when the Wolverines take a double-digit lead and know the Gophers are forced to throw.
It’s a significant number on the road when considering the tempo and total. Nevertheless, we thought the Wolverines would ramp things up last week (they did) and don’t see them slowing down against PJ Fleck’s team on NBC’s Big Ten Saturday Night. This is a team on a mission.
UNDER MINNESOTA 13.5 (FanDuel)If you’ve been following B1G Bets, you know I LOVE an elite defense against a mid offense.
A stacked Michigan defense is arguably the best in the country. The Wolverines are tops in scoring defense (6.0 PPG). Two of the three touchdowns they’ve allowed (in five games!) have come in the final minutes with 35-0 and 45-0 leads, and the other was on a 69-yard TD pass by Rutgers in the first minute. The Scarlet Knights didn’t score again. The most points Jesse Minter’s unit has allowed in a game is seven.
The analytics back it up. The Maize & Blue are seventh in defensive success rate, fifth against the run, tenth in EPA/pass, 19th in EPA/rush, seventh in field position, and 11th in third/fourth down success rate.
Whether it’s 2024 NFL Draft prospects Kris Jenkins along the defensive line and linebacker Junior Colson or budding sophomore stars Will Johnson at corner and edge rusher Derrick Moore, there’s no shortage of defensive playmakers. Watch out for edge Braiden McGregor, who is breaking out.
The Gophers are 98th in yards per play (5.23) and one of the more one-dimensional offenses in college football. Minnesota must run the football and will likely be without leading rusher Darius Taylor. Fleck is coy with injuries but hinted at the upcoming off week giving Taylor two extra weeks to heel up. He knows they’re not winning this game, so why risk re-injuring your best offensive player by rushing him back?
They’ve played three defenses ranked 70th or lower by SP+. Against the better defenses like UNC (48th SP+, 46th scoring), the Gophers scored 13 points, the same amount of points they managed against Nebraska (41st SP+, 57th scoring). In addition to being No. 1 in scoring defense, Michigan’s defense is ranked second by SP+.
Minnesota struggles on early downs (112th EPA) and throwing the football (79th in success rate). They’re 86th in net points/drive, while the Wolverines are first in net points allowed/drive.
B1G Bets (1/2 Unit):Last Week: 0-2; Season: 4-8 (-2 Unit)
Maryland +20 OHIO STATE (DraftKings)Money Line: Ohio State -1450 | Maryland +810 | Total: 57.5
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET; TV: FOX | Location: Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH
Ohio State: AP Top 25: 4 | Coaches Poll: 3 | SP+: 2 | PFF: 8
Maryland: AP Top 25: NR (26) | Coaches Poll: NR (26) | SP+: 31 | PFF: 23
I may regret this, but let’s take the points with the Terps.
I believe Maryland is the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, and 100 percent should be ranked, but I’m not sold they will knock off one of the B1G East’s Big Three. We’re not asking them to pull off the upset; just don’t lose by three touchdowns-plus.
Statistically, these teams are closer than the point spread says. Maryland is 15th in EPA margin, and Ohio State is tenth. The Buckeyes are 40th in offensive success rate and 29th on defense. The Terrapins are 32nd in offensive success rate and 69th on defense.
The Terps are ninth in net/points per drive and second in net field position. The Bucks are tenth in net/points per drive and 14th in net field position.
I’m not buying that they are as close as the statistics say, but again, we don’t need the Terps to win.
Maybe OSU comes out of the bye looking like a different team, but unless they do, I don’t see how they beat Maryland by more than 20.
One final stat: Ohio State is 99th in percentage of first downs coming on first/second down. That’s a lack of explosive plays. They’re 112th in plays of ten-plus yards! Only four games, but that’s tied with Rutgers (11 teams with four games played are ahead of them, including WSU at No. 36). OSU finished in the top five three times in the past five years. This hasn’t been the same offense.
Rutgers +13.5 WISCONSIN (FanDuel)Money Line: Wisconsin -520 | Rutgers +385 | Total: 43.5
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET; TV: Peacock | Location: Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, WI
Wisconsin: AP Top 25: NR (32) | Coaches Poll: NR (40) | SP+: 25 | PFF: 28
Rutgers: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 61 | PFF: 55
This is another matchup where the eye test and metrics line up against the point spread.
Rutgers is 16th in net points/drive, 34th in EPA margin, and fifth in net field position, while Wisconsin is 33rd in net points/drive, 31th in EPA margin, and 42nd in net field position.
The Badgers have the better offense, but the Scarlet Knights can run the ball (17th in EPA/rush) and might have the better defense. RU’s only loss this season came against Michigan, and Wisconsin is nowhere near that level.
I’m not calling for an outright upset. Still, I believe Greg Schiano’s team can keep it close against a Wisconsin bunch that might be peaking ahead to a showdown with Iowa next week, their biggest game of the season, which is expected to decide the Big Ten West.
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