Big Ten Week 8 Betting Picks: Penn State vs. Ohio State & More
The Iowa Hawkeyes came through for us again, notching a pair of B1GGER wins by covering the spread and keeping Wisconsin below their team total. Overall, we went 3-2 (+1.5), including 2-1 ATS. Our B1GGER/B1GGEST Bets are now 19-2 on the season.
The Big Ten slate for Week 8 is six games deep, headlined by the top-ten matchup between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 7 Penn State at the Shoe. Amid more NCAA controversy, No. 2 Michigan takes the short trip to East Lansing to face in-state rival Michigan State. The one game I’m staying away from is Nebraska-Northwestern, with both programs coming off their idle week.
Maryland and Purdue are off this week.
Record: 25-12-1 overall (+16.5 units) | ATS: 14-6-1 | Team Totals: 10-6 | Game Totals: 1-0
Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
B1GGEST Bets (1.5 Units):Last Week: 2-0; Season: 4-1 (+4.5 Units)
None.
B1GGER Bets (1 Units):Last Week: 2-0; Season: 15-1 (+14 Units)
More B1G: B1G Power Rankings | Big Ten Line Movement | B1G Top Dogs |
Penn State +5.5 OHIO STATE (FanDuel)Money Line: Ohio State -182 | Penn State +150 | Total: 45.5
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX| Location: Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH
Ohio State: AP Top 25: 3 | Coaches Poll: 3 | SP+: 2| PFF: 5
Penn State: AP Top 25: 7 | Coaches Poll: 6 | SP+: 8 | PFF: 6
More OSU-PSU: Game Preview | Predictions, Odds, and Insights |
These teams are close to even coming into Saturday’s game. I’m pretty sure both are top-ten teams, but I’m not sure either is a top-five group. The numbers are phenomenal.
Penn State is first in defensive success rate, second in net points/drive, second in net field position, sixth in EPA margin, and 12th in offensive success rate. Ohio State is 24th in defensive success rate, seventh in net points/drive, tenth in net field position, seventh in EPA margin, and 29th in offensive success rate.
Despite the numbers, both offenses have disappointed, considering the talent and competition. Neither offensive line has been impressive, and both have had issues running the football despite talented backfields. The quarterbacks have some excellent stats, too, but they could/should be better.
I’ll take Drew Allar over Kyle McCord. But I don’t trust either offense against either defense.
The defenses have been elite. The numbers back it up. If I had to pick between the two, I’d take Penn State’s defense and Manny Diaz. I might take them over any defense in the country.
The game is at the Horseshoe, but it’s a Big Noon kickoff, so home-field advantage might not play as prominent a role as you would think. Coming off a bye and with UMass at home last Saturday, the Nittany Lions have had three weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes.
Is it possible Penn State has a lot left in the bag? They’ve won every game by at least three scores and haven’t allowed more than 15 points in a game, so they haven’t had to open up the offensive playbook, unlike Ohio State. OSU needed all 60 minutes to beat Notre Dame and had a three-point lead going into the fourth quarter against Maryland.
We’re also not sure how healthy OSU’s offense is. We believe TreVeyon Henderson (who didn’t dress last week) and Miyan Williams (who didn’t travel last week) will probably play. We are less confident in Emeka Egbuka, who also didn’t travel to Purdue.
Take the points in what figures to be toss-up. James Franklin has only beaten OSU once but covers the spread more often than not.
Check out SportsGrid’s CFB Game Picks and CFB Player Props.
Michigan -24 MICHIGAN STATE (DraftKings)Money Line: Michigan -2500 | Michigan State +1100 | Total: 46.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: NBC | Location: Spartan Stadium | East Lansing, MI
Michigan: AP Top 25: 2 | Coaches Poll: 2 | SP+: 1 | PFF: 2
Michigan State: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 55 | PFF: 84
More UM-MSU: A Rivalry Renewed |
We were in on Michigan at Nebraska (45-7) and at Minnesota (51-10). I am not sure why we got off the Wolverines last week vs. Indiana (52-7), but we’re back on the best team in the country.
The Maize and Blue have been dominant and are ranked first in EPA margin, net points per drive, and net field position. Michigan State, not so much. The Spartans are 68th in EPA margin, 80th in net points per drive, and 117th in net field position.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is starting to get some Heisman love, and he leads an offense that ranks in the top 20 in passing and rushing success rate, pass and rush EPA, and points per drive (sixth). Those numbers would be even more impressive if the starters played four full quarters.
MSU’s defense has been especially vulnerable on early downs (101st in percentage of first downs on first/second down, 85th in early down EPA), negating their solid third-down defense.
The disparity is even more significant when Michigan State has the ball. The Spartans are 107th in EPA/pass, 84 in offensive success rate, 80th in points/drive, and 70th in EPA/rush. They’re not good on early downs (115th in percentage of first downs on first/second down, 107th in early down EPA) or third/fourth downs (110th EPA).
How will they move the ball against a Michigan defense that hasn’t allowed more than ten points in a game this season (once) or an opponent to reach goal-to-goal (not even once!)? The defending B1G Champs have incredible depth in the front seven, which allows Jesse Minter to keep everyone fresh. As you would expect, they’re No. 1 in points/drive, eighth in success rate, third in EPA/pass, and 21st in EPA/run.
The last time Sparty played a team the caliber of Michigan, they were blown out at home, 41-7, and they haven’t won since. Their four-game losing streak coincides with the departure of Mel Tucker.
This is a rivalry game, so you might be tempted to take the points. But I’m not sure how much fight MSU has left after blowing a 21-point lead at Rutgers, which stunned them. It’s been a rough season for the Spartans, and Michigan’s last few opponents looked like they couldn’t wait to get off the field and for the game to end.
Meanwhile, would anyone be surprised if Michigan let their starters play a little longer than usual this Saturday? Consider what happened postgame between these teams last season and the fact the Wolverines don’t have a game next week.
IOWA -3.5 Minnesota (Consensus)Money Line: Iowa -170 | Minnesota +140 | Total: 30.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | TV: NBC | Location: Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, IA
Iowa: AP Top 25: 24 | Coaches Poll: 23 | SP+: 37 | PFF: 17
Minnesota: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 56 | PFF: 42
More CFB Game Previews: Alabama-Tennessee | Clemson-Miami | Ole Miss-Auburn | LSU-Army |
Could Minnesota beat Iowa? Yes. Is Minnesota as good as Iowa? Heck, no. Which is basically what this line is saying. We’ve been on the Hawkeyes against Western Michigan, Purdue, and Wisconsin (cha-ching) and will ring that bell again.
I know many love to hate on Iowa’s offense, which makes some people angry that they are winning. Outside of a loss at Penn State, the Hawkeyes have won every game this season by at least six points, including two Power Five programs with winning records. Minnesota has three losses, including one to lowly Northwestern, with their best win at home versus 3-3 Nebraska.
There’s one good unit in this game (more below), which is why the Hawkeyes are 58th in net points/drive (despite their offense) compared to Minnesota, ranked 98th. Both teams want to play complementary football and value field position, which Iowa also does better: fifth in net field position vs. 45th.
The Hawkeyes O-line has improved as the season has progressed, and it shows in the running game. Kaleb Johnson rushed for 136 yards two weeks ago vs. Purdue, and Leshon Williams rushed for 174 yards at Wisconsin (74 yards vs. Purdue). On the other side of the ball, the Gophers are 104th in rushing success rate and 92nd in EPA/rush defensively. It’s not the same defense it’s been the past couple of seasons.
Minnesota UNDER 13.5You cannot bet on Iowa and not back it up with the opposing team’s UNDER. This is an absolute no-brainer.
The Gophers are a slower tempo, more one-dimensional, worse version of Wisconsin.
Iowa’s defense held the Badgers to six points in Camp Randell, and we’ll have an extra touchdown cushion with Minnesota this Saturday in Kinnick.
In case you need a reminder, Iowa’s defense is third in points/drive, 26th in success rate, 22nd EPA/pass, and 42nd EPA/rush. This unit has playmakers at every level.
They are ninth in defensive field position (thank you, punting god Tory Taylor!), and Minnesota is 81st on offense. How are they going to score with an extended field? The answer is they aren’t.
The tempo will play in our favor (Iowa is 101st in plays per minute, and Minnesota is 119th), and I haven’t even mentioned that wind is expected to be a factor.
This will be the fifth time we’ve backed Iowa’s defense in a team total, and the only time they failed us was against Michigan State when a fumble return TD aided the Spartans to 16 points. I like those odds.
B1G Bets (1/2 Unit):Last Week: 1-2; Season: 6-10-1 (-2 Units)
Wisconsin -2.5 ILLINOIS (Consensus)Money Line: Wisconsin -134 | Illinois +112 | Total: 40.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | TV: FS1 | Location: Memorial Stadium | Champaign, IL
Wisconsin: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 25 | PFF: 33
Illinois: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 58 | PFF: 80
It seems like everyone is on Illinois who has been a trendy upset pick this week. The Illini are coming off an upset at Maryland. Wisconsin was upset by Iowa, and they lost starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai.
It’s an overreaction.
The Badgers are 34th in EPA margin (Illinois is 71st), 46th in net points/drive (vs. 102nd), and 63rd in net field position (vs. 131st).
What are Wisconsin’s numbers based on? An excellent running game (seventh rushing success rate, 21st EPA/rush), defense (14th in points/drive, 28th in success rate, 14th EPA/pass, 31 EPA/rush), and special teams (rated 11th by SP+).
Did you notice what I left out? The passing offense is ranked 83rd in success rate and 86th in EPA/pass. Mordecai hasn’t looked comfortable all season and has been highly inconsistent.
Is Braedyn Locke a downgrade? He might be, but I’m throwing out what he did last week. He played against one of the top defenses in the country (Iowa) that excels against the pass, and the Badgers were trailing.
Locke will have a whole week of practice and will face a defense that is 108th in success rate, 81st in points/drive, 80th in EPA/pass, and 60th in EPA/rush.
The Badgers have the better offense, defense, and special teams (the Illini’s ST are 69th per SP+). Don’t stress the QB situation.
INDIANA +5.5 Rutgers (FanDuel)Money Line: Rutgers -215 | Indiana +176 | Total: 39.5
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET | TV: BTN | Location: Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, IN
Rutgers: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 52 | PFF: 52
Indiana: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 96 | PFF: 95
The numbers don’t support it. Indiana is awful. Rutgers is better. But the number doesn’t feel right. We felt the same last week, and Michigan State covered and arguably should have won outright (led 24-3 in the fourth quarter).
The Scarlet Knights could win again, but do they have to? By nearly a touchdown?
RU’s defense is legit, but the offense is suspect: ranked 76th in SP+, 78th in offensive success rate, and 124th in percentage of first downs on first/second down.
Indiana’s defensive numbers have plummeted the past two weeks after playing Maryland and Michigan, offenses that Rutgers doesn’t come close to resembling. They did hold quality units from Louisville (21 points) and Ohio State (24 points) to well below their season averages. The Hoosiers have some defensive talent, particularly in their front seven, and they typically play hard.
The tempo – Indiana is 97th in plays per minute, and Rutgers is 112th – lends itself to a low-scoring game (as does the total), which favors the underdog keeping it close.
We’ve seen Tom Allen’s teams collapse at the ends of seasons, but not in October. They’ve usually bounced back well from blowout defeats. In October 2021, after losing 24-0 to Penn State, they lost 20-15 to No. 15 Michigan State. After losing 54-7 to Ohio State, they lost 38-35 to Maryland. That IU team won two games.
Last season (four wins), the Hoosiers followed a 31-10 loss to Michigan with a 38-33 loss to Maryland, and after falling 56-14 to OSU, they upset MSU 39-31 in East Lansing. I don’t believe they have given up on the season just yet. If they don’t roll over, this should be a one-possession game. Give me the points.
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