Patriots-Dolphins Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 8
New England has lost five of its past six matchups in Miami
The Patriots gave their fans something they’ve needed since Week 1: Hope.
New England pulled off an upset win in the final seconds to beat the Bills in Week 7 at Gillette Stadium. It was the largest the Patriots have been underdogs to Buffalo in over two decades, and they’ll be significant underdogs again when they head to Miami to face the Dolphins.
Similar to last week, history is not on New England’s side. Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 as a starter against the Patriots, and New England has lost five of its past six matchups in Miami.
The recent warm weather in Massachusetts could prove to be helpful for Bill Belichick’s side, but it’s up to Mac Jones to prove last week wasn’t a fluke.
If you look at the third-year quarterback’s passing chart on Next Gen Stats, you’ll see Jones hammered the middle of the field and rarely pushed the ball over 20 yards. The Patriots signal-caller had a 4.3 average depth of target and 2.20 seconds to throw in the pocket, according to Pro Football Focus. The game plan for Bill O’Brien was to get the ball out of Jones’ hands quickly, so he doesn’t hesitate and make a mistake.
Miami has been a tough team to decipher this season. It won the first matchup between these teams in Week 2, and it handled inferior opponents heading into Week 8. But the Dolphins’ losses to the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles seem to indicate Mike McDaniel’s side is one that can beat down bad teams but fail to rise to the occasion against elite squads.
Jalen Ramsey might return this Sunday, and Tyreek Hill doesn’t seem to be hampered by his hip injury from last Sunday. But a potential look-ahead spot with the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany next Sunday could give New England a shot to pull off another win against an AFC East opponent.
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Here’s all you need to know about this Sunday’s Patriots-Dolphins matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Total: 46.5
When: Sunday, Oct. 29 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium; Miami Gardens, Fla.
Editor’s Picks
BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Patriots without Tom Brady have been 4-11 against the spread against the Bills and Dolphins, according to Action Network. Jones is 0-5 ATS in his career against Miami and failed to cover the spread against the Dolphins by seven points per game. Jones also is 8-10 ATS off a straight-up win. He’s lost four straight ATS in this spot and is 2-8 ATS in his last 10. If Miami closes as a 9.5-point favorite, it would be the largest spread against New England since 2001. If the line reached 10, it would be the highest since 1992. Tagovailoa is 15-5 ATS at home but 9-11-1 ATS on the road in his career.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Ezekiel Elliott over 30.5 rushing yards (-114) — Miami is somewhat of a run funnel with the sixth-worst defensive rush expected points added heading into Week 8. Part of this is due to it getting off to such massive leads and allowing runs against the defense — Miami also is bottom-five in defensive run success rate. But New England likely wants to maintain ball control and prevent the Dolphins’ explosive offense from gaining a rhythm. Rhamondre Stevenson closed out last week’s win strong, but Elliott has been the preferred back in the red zone. He’ll likely be relied upon even more given his recent success.
DOLPHINS PROP TO CONSIDER
Jaylen Waddle over 59.5 receiving yards (-114) — Waddle’s best game this season came against New England in Week 2 where he caught four passes for 86 yards. The third-year wide receiver has reached 60 yards or more in three of Tagovailoa’s last starts against the Patriots. Belichick likely will try to focus on Hill like he did last game, which should open up opportunities for Waddle. The Dolphins are top-five in neutral pass frequency so plenty of targets should go Waddle’s way.
PICK: Under 46.5 (-105)
The past three matchups between these sides have gone under this total, and the Patriots aren’t equipped to match the Dolphins in a track meet. If Jones into a pumpkin and speeds the game up with turnovers, that could push this matchup to go over the total. But if the Patriots quarterback can stay consistent, they’ll have a chance against a Dolphins team battling injuries heading into Sunday.
