The Ultimate +700 Same Game Parlay for TNF: Jaguars at Saints

Week 7 of the NFL season is already here, and we have an intriguing Thursday Night Football bout between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints. Much of this game centers around the availability of Jags’ QB Trevor Lawrence, who suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter on Sunday. Reports indicate that Lawrence is optimistic that he’ll be out there Thursday night, so we’ll trust he’ll be a full go as we’ve crafted this same game parlay that, like always, we don’t imagine losing.

This is valued at +700, so take a look at some available profit boosts to push this to +1050.

Let’s ride!

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This season, the Jaguars have allowed the third most receptions to opposing running backs, averaging 6.5 per game. Well, those running backs aren’t Alvin Kamara, who is arguably the best pass-catching back in football. In Kamara’s three games this season, he has tallied 13, 3, and 7 catches, with the three-catch performance being against the Patriots, who they demolished. They won’t destroy the Jags, so we’ll back the over on his reception prop and consider playing his alternate spread of 4.5 for an individual best bet.

More TNF: Back This Alpha Receiver | Injury Report | Movement on the Spread | Betting Preview 

Is Michael Thomas what he once was? Certainly not, but through six weeks, you won’t find a wide receiver who has been as consistent as he has been. In every game, he’s seen anywhere from 6-9 targets, 4-7 receptions, and 45-65 receiving yards like clockwork. Thomas’ alternate reception prop of four+ is too juiced for us, so we’ll happily back his yardage prop of 40+ without thinking twice about it.

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Since Christian Kirk’s dud of a Week 1 performance, he’s averaged 75 yards per game over the past five weeks, comfortably eclipsing 40 yards evweeklyPlus, he’s had a long reception of at least 26 yards in every one of those outings, so there is a strong chance we get about 75% of the needed yardage in one catch. He’s also averaged 6.5 receptions per game over the past five weeks for added security. Whether Trevor Lawrence is banged up or not, Kirk will get his.

In terms of consistency, Evan Engram has been a machine. He’s averaging six receptions and 50 yards per game as Lawrence’s most trusted target when distressed. The Saints defend tight ends pretty well, which is a concern, but given that the Jags line Engram up as a wide receiver more than other teams, I still believe he’ll have his opportunities to get us 25+ yards.

Going back to their college days at Clemson, there is no one on this Jaguars offense that Trevor Lawrence trusts more than Travis Etienne. With him being banged up, it’s very conceivable that Lawrence will want to get the ball out of his hands quicker than usual, aiding both Engram and Kirk, who line up primarily on the inside. It also helps Etienne’s production out of the backfield. He’s already had 3+ receptions in five of six games this season, and I think he could warrant a few more targets with Lawrence feeling skittish. 

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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