TNF Broncos vs. Chiefs: Is Denver a Sneaky Good Play Against the Spread?
As the Denver Broncos gear up to face the formidable Kansas City Chiefs, the NFL betting lines are drawing significant attention. Set at a 10.5-point spread in favor of the Chiefs, with a total of 47.5, bettors and fans alike are contemplating where to place their money. The looming question remains: Are the Broncos the underdogs worth backing, or will the Chiefs justify the odds?
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It could be worthwhile leaning toward taking the points for Denver. Given key players like Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are on the block and the growing sentiment against the Broncos, this might be the perfect time to capitalize on the prevailing sentiment. Most bets seem to be pouring in for the Chiefs. Yet, if history has taught us anything, it’s that betting against the tide can sometimes yield the best results.
A telling statistic from the past provides an interesting angle: Since 2003, double-digit favorites in division games are only 121-48-9 straight up and a mere 45% against the spread. These figures seem to validate the inclination to back the side receiving the 10.5 points in such matchups.
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However, the strategy needs to be impeccable for the Broncos to have a shot at covering. Despite Russell Wilson‘s statistical prowess, Denver must emphasize their ground game. This approach would not only serve to counteract Patrick Mahomes‘ offensive onslaught but also manage the game clock, keeping Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs’ offense on the sidelines.
The underlying concern is Denver’s defense. If they concede scores in the vicinity of 35 to 38 points against the Chiefs, the odds of a repeat performance like their previous game against the Jets – losing by a margin of 10 to 14 points – become significantly high. Consequently, a run-heavy approach would not only keep Mahomes at bay but also contribute to a lower-scoring game, thus favoring the Broncos to cover the 10.5-point spread. However, clinching a win? That’s a steeper challenge.
While the Kansas City Chiefs may be the popular pick for tomorrow night’s showdown, the numbers and history suggest the Denver Broncos might just be the side to bet on. But as always in the unpredictable world of the NFL, only time will tell.
