Look at any dynasty before them, and you’ll arrive at the exact same conclusion — nothing lasts forever. The Tampa Bay Lightning are finding out the hard way that sacrificing all their building blocks would eventually come at the expense of their Stanley Cup aspirations.
Sure, the Bolts haven’t looked terrible this season. Tampa is 2-2-2 to open the campaign, staying afloat in the Atlantic Division. However, their underlying metrics point toward what could be a disastrous season as they get passed by some formerly underwhelming teams.
Former Glory
Last year was the first time the Lightning hadn’t made the Stanley Cup Final since the 2018-19 season. Tampa featured a dangerous combination of high-end scoring, defensive responsibility, and Vezina-caliber goaltending. As their roster ages, we’re starting to see the impact of not replenishing their cupboards with young, NHL-ready skilled players.
Current State
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the backbone of the Lightning’s dynasty. The Russian netminder has led the league in wins in five of the last six seasons, playing more than just about any other goaltender over that stretch. But we’re seeing the negative impacts of that workload this year. Vasilevskiy will be on the shelf for the first two months of the year after undergoing surgery for a back injury.
Worse, we’re seeing a deterioration in other aging players’ metrics. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman have posted the worst expected goals-for ratings of their careers early this season. Kucherov has set the high mark with a 46.5% rating, with Hedman posting a 42.4% benchmark and Stamkos pulling up the rear at a disappointing 33.6%.
Predictably, this has negatively impacted the team’s standing. As it stands, the Bolts rank fourth-last in the NHL with an expected goals-for rating of 43.2%
Trade History
We can’t examine the Lightning’s current state without looking at their questionable trade history. Tampa’s brass has traded away all but one of their past four first-round draft picks. There’s no disputing the results, as the Bolts have two Stanley Cups over that stretch. But their former glory appears to have come at the expense of their long-term sustainability.
Deep Atlantic Division
While the Lightning were enjoying their championship, other teams within their division and across the league have been getting better. That puts them at an immediate disadvantage as other Atlantic Division teams clamor for the few playoff berths available.
We still see the other usual suspects atop the list. The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs have undergone rebuilds in the past, using the current windows to ensure success. However, the Lightning could be usurped by the Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings in the near future.
Through the season’s first three weeks, both franchises rank ahead of them in expected goals-for and points percentage. More importantly, both teams have built themselves from the ground up. The Sens and Wings feature a slew of developed talent, complemented by a few key signings.
If it’s not this year, it won’t be long before both teams surpass the Lightning.
Not Worth Investing
It has become increasingly evident that this Lightning team isn’t worth investing in. The part that’s going to hurt most is there are fewer and fewer glimmers of a brighter tomorrow.
Given their current state, the lack of building blocks for the future, and the teams getting better around them, the window has closed on the Lightning’s competitive window.
Enjoy the back-to-back Stanley Cups, Tampa; it’s going to be another 20 years before you’re relevant again.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
