CFP Picture Could Reset As Conference Champions Are Crowned
Who will be the final four?
Welcome to The Slate, your home for college football picks at NESN.com. Here you can find our best bets to follow across (mostly) Saturdays in the fall. It’s conference championship week!
The entire College Football Playoff landscape could change this weekend.
Isn’t that fun?
It’s conference championship week and — even though we’ll be missing some pretty elite programs in Ohio State, Missouri and LSU — there are plenty of teams that will play this weekend with hopes they can stave off elimination from playoff contention.
We’ve got our eyes on a number of teams, as Alabama, Texas and Oregon can muddy the waters with wins this weekend. There are about 20 different ways this thing could go, so let’s try our best to identify the most likely outcome.
Let’s get straight into it, with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.
PAC-12: Oregon (-9.5) vs. Washington
(Friday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC)
Why is Oregon a 9.5-point favorite? They literally lost to Washington earlier this season.
We’re aware the Ducks have looked tremendous in recent weeks, but the Huskies still haven’t lost this season. It seems like we’re being suckered into tailing a high-scoring Oregon squad, so let’s go the other way and lean on a team that finds ways to win.
The Pick: Washington +9.5
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BIG 12: Texas (-15) vs. Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 12 p.m. ET on ABC)
It’s been a weird season for Texas, who beat Alabama by two scores early this year but hasn’t looked anywhere near as good as the other playoff contenders throughout the remainder of the season.
It’s hard seeing Oklahoma State pulling off the upset, but Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon is good enough to bleed clock and keep this game close.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +15
SEC: Georgia (-5.5) at Alabama
(Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on CBS)
This game might have the biggest impact on the CFP of any this weekend, as an Alabama victory could put the playoff committee in a sticky situation regarding the final spot in the four-team field. That would likely make them decide between the Crimson Tide and Texas for the final spot alongside Georgia, Michigan and the Pac-12 representative.
We can’t get much of a read on this game, but if we had to lean one way, we’d say Georgia wins narrowly. That 5.5-point spread doesn’t exactly give us confidence, though, so we’ll ride with a recent trend.
This game has averaged 62 points in the CFP era, with last year’s matchup between Georgia and LSU reaching 80 total points. These offenses are good enough to hit a measly 55.
The Pick: Over 54.5
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ACC: Florida State (-2.5) vs. Louisville
(Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on ABC)
Florida State was an undoubted playoff team with Jordan Travis under center, but his late-season injury had a big effect on the way the Seminoles are viewed publicly.
They could very well go undefeated and miss the cut, but we think Louisville will make things easy on the committee by winning this game a week after being embarrassed by their arch-rivals.
The Pick: Louisville +2.5
BIG TEN: Michigan (-22) at Iowa
(Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX)
This is a principle play.
Iowa does not score points. Michigan doesn’t throw the ball. This is as high a total as the Hawkeyes have had in two months. We’re going with the Under.
The Pick: Under 35
Season Record: 35-30
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