This start to the season doesn’t undo the years of perpetual disappointment, but it does offer a glass-half-full perspective for the Vancouver Canucks.
A quarter of the way into the campaign, the Canucks are comfortably in a playoff spot. Vancouver occupies a top-three spot in the Pacific Division, insulating itself against any potential usurpers from within the division or wild card teams beneath them.
But with so much being made of the Canucks’ current successes, it’s worth asking; are they legitimate Stanley Cup contenders?
Long Betting Odds
The current futures price would suggest the Canucks are an afterthought for most sharp bettors. The consensus Stanley Cup futures price is +3500. That puts Vancouver 15th on the board, with a modest 2.8% implied chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Mug.
Those odds should be enough to deter most bettors, but there are other factors supporting the Canucks’ eventual demise.
Poor Analytics
One of the most notable variables working against the Canucks is their poor analytics. Vancouver sits in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for rating, posting a sub-optimal 49.4% benchmark. All of the metrics that feed into the compendium rating point toward a similar concern; the Canucks are consistently outplayed.
Most of Vancouver’s metrics are below average. The team has a 49.1% Corsi rating, a 48.4% shots-for rating, and a 48.9% high-danger chance ratio. Simply, the Canucks give up more than they create and spend more time chasing the puck than having it.
Scheduling Concerns
Although all those metrics reveal a gloomy picture, they appear much worse when adjusted for opponent. Vancouver has had a relatively unobstructed path to victory to open the season. Through the first couple months of the season, the Canucks have already taken on some of the weakest teams in the NHL. Fifteen of Vancouver’s 28 games have come against teams at .500 or worse.
Moreover, their perch in the standings has been built by playing more games than most other teams. While the Canucks are up to 28 games played, the Los Angeles Kings are just one point behind them with four fewer games played. Likewise, the surging Edmonton Oilers have three games in hand, albeit needing 12 points to catch the Nucks in the standings.
Goaltending
Hockey is a team sport, but a disproportionate amount of the Canucks’ success belongs to Thatcher Demko. Vancouver’s netminder has almost single-handedly led his team to victory on a dozen occasions this year, staking his team to much-needed points and himself to the top of the Vezina Trophy futures board.
So far this season, Demko has the best save percentage, goals-against average, and quality start percentage of his career. In 13 of his 20 starts, the American-born goaltender has posted a save percentage above 91.6%. Additionally, he’s already got two shutouts, another career-best, while nearly matching last season’s win total.
We’re starting to see Demko’s metrics deteriorate, and as that happens, wins will begin to dry up for the Nucks. Over his past four starts, Demko’s posted an 87.0% save percentage, with Vancouver dropping two of four decisions.
Regression is looming, negatively impacting the Canucks’ probability of success.
Hard Pass
Vancouver’s win this year will be making the playoffs, but they are in no way Stanley Cup contenders. The betting market isn’t taking the Canucks seriously, installing them as distant +3500 longshots. Further, they are being elevated beyond their subpar analytics thanks to Vezina-caliber goaltending from Thatcher Demko.
The Canucks’ schedule will start to intensify, and their unsustainable way of winning games will be exposed. As that starts to happen, teams behind them in the standings will use their games in hand to surpass the Canucks in the standings.
Take these wins as they come Canucks fans; there aren’t many waiting for you come April.
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