We have reached the point of no return in the NFL season. Bye weeks are a thing of the past, the list of contenders is dwindling, and teams are gearing up for their playoff pushes.
While some surprising squads have emerged out of nowhere, asserting themselves in the postseason conversation, a pair of perennial powerhouses have fallen by the wayside. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have stumbled through the middle part of their schedule, casting doubt on their abilities to make another Super Bowl run.
More importantly, it’s time to decide which team has the best shot of taking home the Lombardi Trophy following Super Bowl LVIII.
Current Odds
Heading into Week 15, the Chiefs and Eagles sit at comparable spots on the Super Bowl futures board. Kansas City is priced at +650, whereas the Eagles have recently seen their stock tumble to +800.
The more pronounced difference is how these teams got to their current positions. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs have hovered around the +650 mark all season, ranging from +450 to +650. Conversely, Philadelphia’s perceived value has fluctuated with their on-field results. The Eagles started the season at +900, rising to +400 before settling into their current position.
Chiefs
What’s inherent in the Chiefs’ consistent Super Bowl odds is the betting markets’ unwavering confidence in their ability to compete year in and year out. The Chiefs have asserted themselves as the NFL’s latest dynasty and have the receipts to back it up.
First, KC sits in the upper echelon of several noteworthy categories. So far this season, the Chiefs have compiled the seventh-best total offense and sixth-best total defense. Dissecting those numbers further reveals the Chiefs’ prominence in the passing game. Kansas City limits opponents to an average of 185.0 passing yards per game, throwing for 253.5. Altogether, that’s +0.7 net yards per play.
Moreover, the Chiefs are progression candidates over the latter part of the campaign. Despite their unrelenting offense, Kansas City has seen a decrease in their scoring this season. Their points have dropped by a touchdown year-over-year, falling from 29.2 in 2022 to 22.5 this year.
Considering their nearly identical production metrics, we anticipate a substantial surge in their scoring at the most crucial time of year.
Eagles
As good as the Eagles have looked this season, they don’t possess the same analytics glory the Chiefs do. Defensive woes, mainly via the pass, have sunk Philadelphia’s opponent net yards per play to 5.4. Similarly, their 5.4 yards per play on offense is worse than the Chiefs’ mark of 5.6, giving yet another advantage to KC. Worse, that leaves the Eagles with a neutral net yards per play, which is an unbecoming look for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The most concerning trend is Philadelphia’s susceptibility to defensive collapses. Four times over their past six games, opponents have eclipsed 400 total yards. The Eagles have been unable to keep pace in any of those games, getting out-gained in all six outings.
Playoff Paths
The last variable worth assessing is these teams’ contrasting paths forward through the postseason.
Philadelphia has to run a gauntlet of top contenders to return to the Super Bowl. Their playoff path could include games against the NFC South winner, the Dallas Cowboys, and the San Francisco 49ers, with all three games coming on the road. That path is as inviting as the trek to Mordor.
Meanwhile, Kansas City gets to chill in the Shire. The Pittsburgh Steelers would offer little resistance as a first-round opponent before KC gets to pick on an inexperienced Miami Dolphins side and the one-dimensional Baltimore Ravens. That’s assuming they don’t reclaim the top spot in the conference before the end of the season.
Verdict
We’re placing our trust in the betting market, giving the edge to the Chiefs in this two-horse race. KC has better-underlying metrics, a winning pedigree, and a less obstructed path to the Super Bowl.
Kansas City has bottomed out, but their odds have remained primarily unaffected. That’s the level of confidence you should have in backing them to solidify their dynasty.
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