Inevitably, every college football season concludes with some level of controversy. But we’ve never seen an omission of this magnitude from the College Football Playoff.
The undefeated Florida State Seminoles will be watching the drama unfold from the comfort of their homes.
Shockingly, the CFP committee named the Michigan Wolverines, Washington Huskies, Texas Longhorns, and Alabama Crimson Tide to the national semifinals, ending FSU’s bid for its first National Championship under the current format.
Undefeated Season
Florida State was one of just four schools to finish the season with a perfect 13-0 record. Not surprisingly, the other two Power 5 schools to accomplish the feat were included in the final four. The Liberty Flames were the only other program to run the table, albeit against less-than-impressive opponents in the Conference USA.
Unlike some of the Group of 5 schools that have suffered a similar fate, the Seminoles’ controversy runs much deeper.
Strength of Schedule
FSU intentionally stacked the deck this year in hopes of making a run to the postseason. The Seminoles knocked off the fifth-ranked LSU Tigers in the season opener, taking their foot off the pedal just once in a Week 12 matchup against the North Alabama Lions.
Otherwise, Florida State defeated every Power 5 school they faced this year. Included in that schedule are three wins over top 25 schools, knocking off two SEC squads, and a convincing ACC Championship victory while only facing three teams with a losing record.
Arguably, that’s a tougher schedule than some of the teams ahead of them in the rankings.
Gambling Supremacy
There’s an old saying amongst college football bettors, “Good teams win, great teams cover.” FSU deserves some credit for their gambling supremacy throughout the season.
At first glance, the Seminoles were a respectable 8-5 against the spread; however, bettors couldn’t get enough of FSU throughout the season. Florida State was chalk in all but two of their outings this year. They were +1 underdogs against the Tigers in the season-opener and +1.5 dogs in the ACC Championship Game. In those two games, the Seminoles covered the spread by a whopping 28.5 points.
Otherwise, FSU entered every other game as a favorite, usually by a substantial margin. They were priced at -13.5 or higher in nine of 12 games. Four of the five times the Seminoles didn’t cover, they had to cover spreads of – 20.5 or greater.
Obviously, some sharp people believed in the Seminoles throughout the campaign. FSU was installed as favorites for most of the season, often hitting double-digits as favorites.
Underlying Metrics
Florida State’s success is also validated through its underlying metrics. They finished with a top-15 total defense against FBS schools, allowing a minuscule 312.4 yards per game against a gauntlet of opponents. Almost equally as impressively, the Seminoles accumulated 407.5 yards per game offensively, resulting in 35.3 points per game, 14th-best in the country.
Right to be Angry
FSU players, coaches, and fans have a right to be angry. The Seminoles were one of the best teams in the country from start to finish, knocking off some top-end opponents without missing a beat. Despite marching to victory in every contest, punctuating their season with an ACC Championship, the CFP committee selected two teams with inferior records over the Seminoles.
The consolation prize for an outstanding campaign is an Orange Bowl matchup against the two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, who may also have a bone to pick with the CFP after an impressive 12-1 campaign.
Still, it’s not the ending Florida State deserved.
