As the NBA season heats on, the MVP race is witnessing some dynamic shifts in betting odds. Here’s a breakdown of the latest movements and what they signal for the contenders.
Regular Season NBA MVP Insights
- Highest Ticket%: Nikola Jokic 21.8%
- Highest Handle%: Nikola Jokic 29.1%
- Biggest Liability: Nikola Jokic
- Odds Leader: Joel Embiid +150
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Nikola Jokic has seen his odds shorten considerably since the opening. From +500, they tightened to +250 last week and settled at +325. Jokic is a crowd favorite, commanding 21.8% of the tickets and a significant 29.1% of the handle, indicating strong belief in him capturing a third NBA MVP award. The Joker is having another off-the-charts season, leading the NBA in win shares.
Jayson Tatum‘s trajectory has been less favorable. His odds have lengthened from +900 to +1800 and have now reached +2500. Despite this, he still holds 13.3% of the ticket share but a lesser 7.7% of the handle, showing that bettors are growing skeptical of his chances. Tatum’s numbers are down, but the more balanced Boston Celtics own the East’s best record.
The case of Devin Booker reflects a cautious market, with his odds moving from +1800 to +3500 and now to +4000. He’s involved in 8.5% of the tickets and 6.2% of the handle, which suggests a wait-and-see approach from the bettors. Phoenix still seems to be figuring out chemistry issues and has dealt with significant injuries that contributed to a 14-15 record and last place standing in the Pacific.
Meanwhile, Luka Doncic remains a steady contender. His odds have fluctuated slightly, moving from +500 to +400, and currently sitting at +650. His ticket and handle percentages at 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, reflect a consistent backing. No one has scored more points than Luka this season, while he sits second in assists per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seen his odds improve dramatically from +2000 to +700, now slightly up to +600. The betting patterns are optimistic, with 7.9% of tickets and 10.0% of the handle backing him. Perhaps the biggest thing holding back SGA is playing in the small market of Oklahoma City. The Canadian guard is doing it on both ends of the floor while averaging 31 points per game, third-best in the league.
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Joel Embiid has the most interesting shift. His odds have been slashed from +600 to +350 and now to a favorable +150. Embiid holds 6.1% of the tickets and a disproportionate 13.9% of the handle, indicating some large bets have been placed on him. The Sixers’ big man is making a legitimate case for back-to-back MVPs, leading the NBA in scoring at 35 a game. Philly has also been one of the top teams in the East.
Kevin Durant‘s odds have lengthened significantly from +1200 to +2500, now at +4000, with only 4.2% of the tickets and a low 1.4% of the handle, reflecting diminishing confidence among the bettors. While Durant is scoring at a better clip than he has in ten years, Phoenix isn’t winning.
Tyrese Haliburton is the dark horse, with odds shifting from +10000 to +2000, now at +4000. He holds 3.5% of the tickets and 2.3% of the handle, suggesting bettors are willing to take a long shot. Haliburton had his coming out party during Indiana’s run to the NBA In-Season Tournament’s finals and leads the league in assists per game at 12.1.
Lastly, Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s odds have modestly changed from +550 to +900, now at +1000. With 3.4% of the tickets and 4.6% of the handle, there’s a measured belief in his potential to clinch the MVP title. Giannis is having another dominant season and is a huge reason why Milwaukee has the third-best record in the league.
The MVP race is as unpredictable as ever, with odds and sentiments shifting weekly. Bettors are aligning their hopes and wallets with their predictions, making the NBA MVP betting market fascinating.
