NFL Week 15 Picks: Cowboys Battle Bills; Playoff Races Heating Up?

Look around. There are plenty of indications that we've officially reached the holiday season.

There's a chill in the air, festive tunes on the radio and an endless supply of Hallmark movies to watch while sipping hot chocolate and throwing logs on the fire. Heck, you might even have a Christmas tree or enough lights on your house to make Clark Griswold blush.

But the real holiday evidence resides on the gridiron, where the NFL returns to Saturday this week with three games of varying importance. There's just something about the Saturday slate this time of year.

If those three contests don't move the needle for you, though, that's OK, because Sunday features a few intriguing matchups, highlighted by Cowboys-Bills and Ravens-Jaguars.

NESN.com's Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle tackled those two pivotal showdowns on this week's episode of "The Spread," NESN's football picks podcast, as well as several other games and NFL storylines. Feel free to listen below.

Obviously, take their betting advice with a grain of salt. But just know they're both coming off a very strong Week 14. So, sometimes, they actually know what they're talking about.

Anyway, here are their picks (against the spread) for every game on the Week 15 slate.

THURSDAY, DEC. 14

Los Angeles Chargers at (-3) Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Raiders.
Ricky: Chargers.

Here's the thing about a quarterback matchup between Easton Stick and Aidan O'Connell: I already know O'Connell kinda stinks. Stick might, too, but at least there's an element of mystery involved. Maybe he goes full Will Levis in his first career NFL start. Or maybe he does just enough to cover, which is OK, too. --RD

No Matchup Found

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SATURDAY, DEC. 16

Minnesota Vikings at (-3) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Bengals.

Jake Browning has torn apart Indianapolis and Jacksonville the last two weeks -- a pair of defenses that are good, not great, especially the Jaguars who have dropped off in a big way in the second half. The Vikings, however, present a tougher challenge, as Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense has been the NFL's second-best defense (by EPA) since Week 9. The Vikings also looked to get a spark from Nick Mullens last week at quarterback. --MC

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-1.5) Indianapolis Colts, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Steelers.

Buying the Steelers at their lowest point, after back-to-back losses to the Cardinals and Patriots. Nothing the Colts have done this season -- even at their peak -- has felt overly sustainable, starting with their quarterback play. Among 29 QBs with at least 100 pressured dropbacks, Gardner Minshew has the lowest offensive grade per Pro Football Focus. Not a promising recipe against a Steelers pash rush led by T.J. Watt, who cleared concussion protocol and figures to suit up Saturday in Indianapolis. --RD

Denver Broncos at (-4) Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Lions.

The turnaround of Denver's defense has been one of the biggest stories of the second half of the season. In hindsight, though, a lot of that has come against flawed offenses; even stout performances against teams like the Chiefs, Bills and Chargers don't seem as impressive anymore. The Lions are kind of reeling, but this feels like a good spot to fight back, getting back home against a team that is not as talented as they are in front of a rowdy crowd on a Saturday night. --MC

SUNDAY, DEC. 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-3.5) Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Packers.

Jumped off the Packers bandwagon last week just in time for their Monday night loss to the Giants. That was a bad spot for Green Bay, though, with New York coming off its bye and playing host to a team that was overvalued thanks to back-to-back standalone wins against good opponents. I'm jumping back on this week, with a favorable matchup for the Packers at home. --RD

New York Jets at (-8.5) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Jets.

Loved the Jets at the opening number of 10.5, but apparently so did everyone else, with this thing down nearly a field goal. The Dolphins have major injury issues with Tyreek Hill's status uncertain and a decimated offensive line. That being said, I'm not buying the Zach Wilson I saw last week coming back again this week in potentially windy and rainy conditions on South Beach. The Dolphins win and cover -- barely. --MC

New York Giants at (-6) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Saints.

I can't believe I'm about to lay six points with the Saints, who lost three in a row before an uneven-looking Week 14 win over the lowly Panthers. New Orleans just isn't very good. Still, perhaps against my better judgment, I must fade the Tommy DeVito hype train on a short week. Save your receipts. --RD

Houston Texans at (-3) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Texans.

The wheels are starting to fall off a bit for the Texans. All in all, it's going to look like a really good year with a rookie quarterback and head coach, but with C.J. Stroud potentially not going, the Titans look like the play. Tennessee is on a short week with a potential for a letdown after an emotional Monday night win, but this feels like the sort of situation they can handle. --MC

(-3) Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons.
Ricky: Falcons.

Laying points with the Desmond Ridder-led Falcons on the road will make your stomach churn. Unless you've backed the Panthers' offense at any point this season, in which case you're already immune to such discomfort. Take the better team and pray Ridder's inevitable miscues aren't too egregious. --RD

Chicago Bears at (-3) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Bears.

This might be the week Joe Flacco looks like a 38-year-old who started the season on the couch. The Bears' defense has been one of the NFL's best since acquiring Montez Sweat, and if Chicago can generate any pressure, they'll fluster Flacco, who has been abysmal when sped up. We've also kind of seen the Browns struggle with giving up big plays at times this season (Seattle, Indy games stand out), and Justin Fields leads an offense that might be inconsistent but certainly has the ability to strike. --MC

(-7.5) Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Chiefs.

The Patriots' offense looked like an actual NFL unit against the Steelers in Week 14. For a few minutes, at least. The rest of that primetime showdown was as ugly as advertised. Sorry, just not buying into "Zappe Fever," as we've seen how low the floor is when New England isn't catching lightning in a bottle. --RD

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(-12.5) San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: Cardinals.

San Francisco was just kind of meh for a good chunk of last week's game and looked like it was going to struggle to cover the opening number of 10.5 before winning by 12 (gotta get the best number). At this point, it feels like they can win by 12 or 13 in their sleep, so I'll just blindly take my chances even laying the big number on the road in the division. --MC

Washington Commanders at (-6.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Commanders.
Ricky: Commanders.

The Rams are a sneaky-decent team that could pose a problem for someone on Super Wild Card Weekend -- if they make the playoffs. The market is acknowledging that with this number, though. It's just too many points, with Los Angeles coming off a hard-fought overtime game in Baltimore and Washington coming off its bye. --RD

Dallas Cowboys at (-2) Buffalo Bills, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Cowboys.

Ricky made a compelling case for the Cowboys on "The Spread" this week, but I think I've bought into the Bills -- and not just because I'm holding some juicy Buffalo tickets to win the Super Bowl. The 9/11 thing might have galvanized them (super weird, I know!), and I do wonder how Dallas will handle going into the cold here for the first time this season. --MC

(-3) Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Ravens.

Trevor Lawrence's injury is a problem, as it could limit his mobility against one of the NFL's best defenses. But the Jaguars' bigger issue resides on the other side of the ball, where they've been getting torched lately. Since Week 10, Jacksonville's defense ranks 27th in EPA/play. And part of the problem is the Jags aren't forcing turnovers like they did earlier this season. --RD

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MONDAY, DEC. 18

(-3.5) Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Eagles.
Ricky: Eagles.

Philly's defense has been really bad the last month or so, which is concerning. However, the Seahawks aren't much better on that side of the ball, so this ultimately comes down to which offense you trust more. If that is the case, the Eagles have an undeniable advantage, and it's hard to see Seattle keeping pace -- even with the slump Jalen Hurts finds himself in. --MC