NFL Week 16 Picks: Potential Super Bowl Preview Caps Christmas Extravaganza

On the 12th day of Christmas, your true love gave to you: NFL Week 16 picks.

That’s how it goes, right?

We’ve reached peak holiday time with less than a week before Jolly Old Saint Nicholas takes the handoff and dashes toward paydirt. For folks across the world, it’s one of the best weeks of the entire year. For those who make their money in the NFL, it’s, well, work.

And that includes those looking to get down some action on NFL games between glasses of eggnog and wrapping presents. NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are no different, and as they have done all season, they are attacking the betting board like Santa Claus takes down a cookie plate.

We’ll get to their picks for every NFL game this week below, but before diving into those, give “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast a listen. The boys not only gave out their best bets for the week, but they also kicked up some holiday hijinks. It’s the perfect background noise for holiday travel with a little comic relief for when you’ve about it had it assembling that stupid dollhouse.

Before diving into the rest of the picks, here’s how they fared in Week 15.

Here are their against-the-spread picks for every game on the NFL Week 16 slate.

THURSDAY, DEC. 21

New Orleans Saints at (-4) Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: Rams.

This is lowkey one of the best games of the entire week, especially given the playoff repercussions, and it’s also one of the most difficult to handicap. Ultimately, though, the Rams have a huge advantage at both head coach and quarterback. The Saints defense might have decent numbers, but they have struggled to slow down the few competent offenses they’ve faced. LA fits in that category. –MC

SATURDAY, DEC. 23

(-2) Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Steelers.

Mason Rudolph can’t be any worse than Mitch Trubisky at this point, righ? … especially on Christmas weekend. Maybe Jake Browning is actually the next Tom Brady, but you have to think the walls close in at some point, and on the road against a divisional opponent with a good defense feels like the place. Not having Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t help, either. –MC

(-11.5) Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers, 8 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Bills

This is like the Dolphins-Jets game last week in that the opening number wasn’t worth touching, but it’s more palatable now. The Bills opened as 14-point favorites which would have been daunting, but it’s far more tempting at this number. Easton Stick isn’t the sort of passer who can expose Buffalo’s depleted secondary, and the Bills’ pass rush should make it a long night for Stick. –MC

SUNDAY, DEC. 24

Indianapolis Colts at (-1) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Falcons.

I honestly just trust the Colts more. Maybe it regresses at some point this season, but Indy is 5-2 in one-score games. They’re not extremely talented, but they do seem to be well-coached and disciplined. They feel less likely to make the bad play, and that’s big in a game that’s basically a pick ’em. –MC

(-4.5) Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

I called Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry the NFL’s biggest Grinch, so he could definitely rob the Packers of Christmas joy here. His defense has been terrible. However, the Panthers’ offense might be the NFL’s worst, and their defense isn’t much better. The thing about the Packers’ recent collapse is that has overshadowed Jordan Love’s continued progression. I think he has another big game here, and it’s one that not even Barry can mess up. –MC

(-2.5) Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns.
Ricky: Texans.

I really wanted to back the Texans here because of a point Ricky made on “The Spread” this week, pointing to how the Browns’ defense seems to play much better at home with the Lake Erie elements at their back. That being said, it looks like C.J. Stroud won’t go, and it’s really hard to back Case Keenum in this spot against a very strong defense. –MC

(-3) Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Vikings.

Last week was the perfect bounce-back spot for Detroit against a Denver defense that couldn’t match up. It’s a different story this week on the road against a Vikings defense that ranks fifth by DVOA and seventh by EPA. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has struggled with the blitz, and that’s a hallmark of Brian Flores’ defenses. –MC

Washington Commanders at (-3) New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Commanders.

The Commanders are a joke. It sure looks like they have quit on the season. Granted, the Jets have, too, but someone has to win. The Commanders’ defense has turned into a sieve, tied for Arizona with the most touchdowns allowed this season, and they have been getting beat down recently. Entering last week, they had lost three straight by a combined 77 points and were down 28-7 midway through the fourth quarter last week. The offense has gone ice-cold, too, ranking 25th in EPA per play over the last five weeks, something that probably won’t be fixed by a date with the Jets. –MC

(-2.5) Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Titans.

This might sound weird, but the Titans might be a worse matchup for Seattle than the Eagles were. Philly’s offense is kind of broken outside of Jalen Hurts, but the Titans at least can run the ball effectively. That’s been a major issue for Seattle, which has allowed 164 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks. Big game for December Derrick Henry incoming. –MC

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Bucs.

This game is certainly lined like Trevor Lawrence isn’t going to play as he deals with a concussion. If that’s the case, Tampa Bay is the pick. The Jags were analytical darlings for much of the first half of the season, but they have fallen off recently. The defense ranks 25th by EPA per play since Week 10, one spot above the Packers defense the Bucs just shredded on the road. They might not have quite the same success, but a win seems very doable. –MC

Arizona Cardinals at (-4) Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Cardinals.

It completely behooves the Cardinals to lose this game, as they could still work their way into the No. 2 spot in the draft. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing with house money, as they hold Carolina’s pick which looks like it’s going to end up being No. 1 (putting Chicago in the odd spot of having to root for the Packers this week). If you want to get real carried away, the Bears could benefit from Justin Fields looking good down the stretch if they want to trade him. Anyway, give me the Bears. –MC

Dallas Cowboys at (-1.5) Miami Dolphins, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Dolphins.

The Dolphins had a comically long list of injuries for Wednesday’s practice, but the Cowboys aren’t exactly healthy, either. Dallas was down two key linemen (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin) to start the week, so that levels the playing field a bit. So it comes down to just how much trouble I’m having to shake the stark difference between the Cowboys’ success against good teams and troubles with bad teams. The Dolphins are in a similar boat, but it seems like a bigger issue for Dallas, and the Cowboys have really struggled to stop the run against good teams. Mike McDaniel must be salivating. –MC

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New England Patriots at (-6.5) Denver Broncos, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

The New England offense has certainly looked better with Bailey Zappe under center, as low as that bar might have been to clear. Teams have been able to make in-game adjustments against him after quick starts, but I do wonder whether the Denver defense is capable of that the way Pittsburgh and Kansas City — two better defenses — could. The Patriots find a way to keep it close in a higher-scoring game. –MC

MONDAY, DEC. 25

Las Vegas Raiders at (-10) Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Mike: Raiders.
Ricky: Chiefs.

The Raiders were actually pretty competitive in the teams’ first meeting of the season before KC pulled away late. The Chiefs’ offensive issues, though, make that sort of late-game acceleration difficult to bank on. The Raiders have had the NFL’s second-best defense since Antonio Pierce took over. It’s hard to think they can pull the upset here, but they can keep it close-ish in a low-scoring game. –MC

New York Giants at (-12) Philadelphia Eagles, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Eagles.
Ricky: Eagles.

There’s really no reason to feel good about the Eagles right now. Philly is struggling on both sides of the ball. However, Tommy DeVito’s best work has either come at home and/or against bad teams and/or bad defenses (Washington, Green Bay, New England). The Eagles at least have talent on defense and a very strong home-field advantage, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Philly score on defense to get by the number. –MC

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Baltimore Ravens at (-5.5) San Francisco 49ers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

The Ravens have played the NFL’s 25th-most difficult schedule, per ESPN’s FPI rankings, without any real impressive, signature wins. San Francisco, on the other hand, has played a top-10 schedule and beat non-division playoff contenders Pittsburgh, Dallas, Jacksonville and Philadelphia by an average of 27 points. The Niners make one more statement here against the class of the AFC. –MC